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RegExp("[?&]notifications=1(&|#|$)");"desktop"===y&&i&&b.test(window.location.search)&&(i.checked=!0)};ge("ybar-mod-notification",(function(e){var t={isUH3:"crunch"===e.getConfig().ytheme,notifContainer:document.getElementById("notification-container"),notifBadge:document.getElementById("notif-badge"),notifMenu:document.getElementById("ybarNotificationMenu"),notifMenuOpener:document.querySelector("#ybarNotificationMenu + label"),notifDropdown:document.getElementById("notifDropdownContainer"),tooltipContainer:document.querySelector(".".concat($n)),notifLabel:document.querySelector(".".concat(Xn))};t.notifDropdown&&so(e,t)}))}()}};]]>Natalia KatonaMon, December 29, 2025 at 1:00 AM GMT+1 7 min readNew Zealand’s gas market has been moving from self-sufficient to structurally tight. Domestic output has almost halved in the last 7 years, falling from an average 415 million m³/month in 2017 to 215 million m³/month in 2025, stripping out the buffer that once covered seasonal swings and dry-year hydro shortfalls. The drought-driven winters of 2024–2025 exposed a new reality: as hydro weakened, the country’s power system leaned harder on thermal generation just as gas supply was tightening, triggering sharp spikes in electricity and gas prices and forcing repeated curtailments at large industrial users. The government has moved to revive upstream investment, but new supply will not arrive fast enough to prevent a tighter balance from 2027 onward – making LNG imports a plausible backstop for winter security.New Zealand is an isolated gas system so far supplied entirely by domestic production, with infrastructure centred on the North Island. Supply is overwhelmingly concentrated in the Taranaki Basin on- and offshore the North Island’s west coast in the Tasman Sea. OMV (Austria), operator of the Maui and Pohokura offshore fields, has been the largest producer, alongside Todd Energy (New Zealand) and Beach Energy (Australia), with a few smaller domestic players. In such a system, a slowdown in exploration does not merely reduce longer-term optionality; it directly translates into declining deliverability as mature fields deplete.Related:Policy was a key driver of the slowdown. The 2018 Crown Minerals (Petroleum) Amendment Act halted new offshore exploration permits beyond a limited Taranaki area, and the 2021 introduction of perpetual decommissioning liability further chilled investment by leaving permit holders responsible indefinitely for future well failures. Exploration then stalled—only five wells have been drilled since 2019—allowing depletion to dominate and production to slide sharply by 2025.The structural supply squeeze became a market shock in 2024, when weather pushed the power system into stress. A very dry autumn preceded a very dry winter, reducing hydro generation (typically 60–70% of New Zealand’s power mix) to around 40%. The system had to replace the missing hydro with more thermal generation, including gas and coal, even as gas availability tightened. Between July and August 2024, wholesale electricity prices almost tripled  from NZ$300 (US$175)/MWh to NZ$800 (US$467)/MWh. Gas prices followed scarcity signals: residential prices increased from NZ$42 (US$24.5)/GJ to NZ$50 (US$29)/GJ, while industrial prices climbed from NZ$23 (US$13.5)/GJ to NZ$30 (US$17.5)/GJ.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoS&P Futures6,946.50 -8.50 (-0.12%)Dow Futures48,712.00 -37.00 (-0.08%)Nasdaq Futures25,696.50 -43.25 (-0.17%)Russell 2000 Futures2,533.90 -2.30 (-0.09%)VIX14.20 +0.60 (+4.41%)Gold4,383.30 +39.70 (+0.91%)Trending tickersBNAI Brand Engagement Network, Inc. 2.5050 +1.3050 (+108.75%)RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. 19.72 -14.47 (-42.32%)MREO Mereo BioPharma Group plc 0.2854 -2.0246 (-87.65%)CETX Cemtrex, Inc. 2.1100 -0.1700 (-7.46%)RPGL Republic Power Group Limited 0.6834 +0.4201 (+159.55%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersPRAX Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc. 304.58 +35.63 (+13.25%)RGC Regencell Bioscience Holdings Limited 23.48 +2.32 (+10.96%)DBRG DigitalBridge Group, Inc. 15.26 +1.34 (+9.63%)BLTE Belite Bio, Inc 165.29 +10.36 (+6.69%)PSNY Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC 18.66 +1.12 (+6.39%)Top losersSBSW Sibanye Stillwater Limited 14.20 -1.50 (-9.55%)BRBR BellRing Brands, Inc. 27.33 -2.83 (-9.38%)DJTWW Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. 7.38 -0.74 (-9.11%)DRD DRDGOLD Limited 30.54 -2.79 (-8.37%)HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited 19.95 -1.79 (-8.23%)Most activeNVDA NVIDIA Corporation 188.22 -2.31 (-1.21%)DBRG DigitalBridge Group, Inc. 15.26 +1.34 (+9.63%)NIO NIO Inc. 5.34 +0.24 (+4.71%)PLUG Plug Power Inc. 1.9700 -0.1000 (-4.83%)TSLA Tesla, Inc. 459.64 -15.55 (-3.27%)Top economic eventsEarnings eventsMy earnings eventsEarnings events