Ever since Donald Trump became President of the United States again, his domestic and external conduct has proved that not just American policies, but the American mindset has changed drastically. Trump’s second term in the White House signifies the demise of the last dream supporting the post-World-War-II order: That American power, no matter how egotistical, would still be structurally invested in keeping the international system running. This fantasy is now coming to an end. The US no longer sees its alliances as part of the global strategy but as items on the balance sheet, where commitments are drawbacks and no loyalty is unconditional.For almost two decades, New Delhi has relied on an informal dependence on America’s global importance while trying to maintain “strategic autonomy” wherein it would not formally admit its reliance. The uneasy equilibrium could endure only so long as the guarantor remained satisfied with this strategic ambiguity. American willingness to have India’s role undefined has been the main factor keeping the relationship together. With Trump in the White House, this is beginning to unravel because the US is demanding not only unqualified deference from India but also burden-sharing in the Indo-Pacific. The perception of the Quad being weakened has only grown with Trump deciding to skip the top leaders’ summit in New Delhi this year even though the National Security Strategy has made a formal mention of the Quad.AdvertisementChina has long regarded power as the ultimate arbiter of strategic outcomes, and therefore it will interpret the shift in American worldview not as restraint, but as the contraction of its authority and resolve. India’s problem with China is likely to get worse, not better. Beijing’s poaching in the Himalaya is also likely to amplify because the US is getting tired of its global leadership role. The tuning of alliances into temporary arrangements will not give the Indian Ocean more security. What gets erased is the unwritten presumption that the US would come to India’s aid in a potential border dispute with China. With Trump, it could be that the US will come late and with no direction at all. Although this is not a catastrophe, it surely marks the end of India’s decade-old comfort with America’s global power. The world that India is facing right now is a colder one, and more akin to a classical balance of power where moral language fades away and the outcomes are determined by capability, alignment and timing.Also Read | Notes on a scandal: A shockingly frank interview by White House Chief of Staff has lessons for IndiaThis National Security Strategy has the unmistakable signature of Trump’s thinking about the Indian Subcontinent, as it reads: “President Trump employs non-traditional measures of diplomacy, the power of the United States military, and economic pressure to precisely and completely eliminate the division between the nuclear-capable countries and the violent wars that have lasted for centuries and caused by hatred.” What has been considered mere hyperbole in other circumstances has now been transformed into an official American tenet. This is all too clear in the President’s misunderstanding of India-Pakistan relations, where the long saga of Pakistani aggression — rather than any equally abstract and vague hostility — was the main trigger of the conflict. Characterising himself as a negotiator, Trump has projected his own peculiar inclinations as a remedy for the many ills that the Indian Subcontinent has suffered, turning geopolitical ignorance into America’s diplomatic principle.Pakistan, acting consistently, would see a chance where others see losses. A strategically absent-minded and transactional America, rather than a liberal global hegemon giving sermons on human rights and enforcing regional stability, is more advantageous for Pakistan’s military establishment. The country has often found the close international scrutiny of its revisionist behaviour quite irksome and has always preferred to thrive in the shadows. Trump’s nonchalance toward democracy and his disdain for institutional reforms match perfectly with Pakistan’s strategic inclination.AdvertisementThe Pakistan military would interpret the National Security Strategy wording as the US ceasing to endorse New Delhi’s prominent position in South Asia and propping up Rawalpindi against India as a reward for its sycophancy towards Trump. In contrast, the National Security Strategy would be a warning for India that Pakistan is no longer a pariah but a nuclear-armed viper that could be exploited by Washington. The NSS speaks more loudly about the emergence of bipolarity in the Indian Subcontinent with Washington’s hand manipulating the scales towards controlled chaos.The counterterrorism partnership between Washington and Rawalpindi will be restructured. Intelligence, access and logistics will be sold easily along with rare minerals. In a scenario where Washington loves to sell more weapons to boost its domestic manufacturing, Pakistan’s willingness to purchase would be treated as strength. Conversely, the American pullback could translate into a decline of India’s soft power. Through the contest of democracies vs autocracies, one of the major gains for India has been its branding as a “natural ally” of the United States. Since America’s alliances and partnerships are being questioned, this portrayal is going to lose its sheen.Pakistan’s political and economic instability, which used to be regarded as a liability in the rules-based order, is being seen as an asset in a disunited world. The willingness to enforce norms and rules is diminishing; thus, Pakistan appears to be enjoying freedom of manoeuvre without being held accountable for its reckless conduct. Still more concerning, America’s domestic insularity would provide a pretext for bolder actions by the Pakistani military. On the other hand, India finds itself in the precarious position of having to take responsibility for restoring regional balance but lacking the full agency needed for enforcement.When central power in the international system diminishes, control over the situation deteriorates. Deterrence dies out, arms races intensify and crisis management is done haphazardly. Allies and partners are forced to play their own games while lowering the overall predictability of the situation. Therefore, Trump’s evolving worldview marks a seismic shift in South Asia’s balance of power and has direct consequences for India’s Pakistan policy. A less focused and more distracted America would dilute the pressure on South Asia regarding nuclear proliferation and crisis control. In such circumstances, it would become increasingly difficult to punish Pakistan for playing the high-stakes asymmetric games. most readIndia has to revisit its Pakistan policy devoid of any emotions. The hope that the international community will control Pakistan’s irredentist conduct is getting dangerously weaker. The Pakistani military’s actions and rhetoric continue to underscore its desire to confront India.History gives us no solace in this matter. Previously, when the US withdrew into the cocoon of tariffs and transactionalism, the world took a perilous turn — armed, aligned and eventually burned. For India, it is a call for sobriety, while for Pakistan it is a seductive opening. The international system gets a reminder that when order becomes fragile, it is raw power that takes its place — unevenly distributed and poorly controlled. Kaura is assistant professor at the Sardar Patel University of Police, Security and Criminal Justice, Jodhpur (Rajasthan), and non-resident fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), NUS