Société Générale’s quantitative model is signalling "bubbleconditions" in the silver market, but the bank’s analysts are less certain therally is driven only by speculation.Silver fell sharply yesterday (Monday) aftermargin requirements were raised. The move marked its largest single-daypercentage drop since early February 2021. Prices recovered today and remain upabout 153% this year.Silver Rebounds Amid Mixed Global MarketsSociété Générale’s commodities research team, led by MikeHaigh, said the rally looks less extreme when viewed on a logarithmic scalerather than a standard linear chart. From that perspective, the move reflects“the same compounding story” seen in silver over the past 25 years.Market conditions were mixed on Tuesday. European equitiesopened slightly higher. US futures traded lower. Silver rebounded and recoveredpart of the previous session’s losses.Rebound Continues Despite Bubble Framework WarningKathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said silver was“up more than 2.5%” on the day. She said that “supply concerns limit thedownside for the precious metal.” Brooks added that the price had “clawed backsome of Monday’s losses” as tight physical supply supported the market.Despite the rebound, Société Générale said this year stillstands out. Using a log-periodic power law framework that flagged earlierbubbles in 2010 and 2020, the bank said the current move also fits itsdefinition of a bubble. In that model, prices accelerate rapidly toward acritical point. However, Haigh warned against relying only on quantitativesignals, saying structural changes linked to de-dollarization and geopoliticalrisks are factors “a model cannot capture.”SocGen’s model says ‘yes, silver’s in a bubble’ but its analysts say ‘no’ it isn’t. https://t.co/RLOrM1MU6V— MarketWatch (@MarketWatch) December 30, 2025China Export Curbs Threaten Silver SupplyThe bank also pointed to rising supply-side pressures. Chinaplans to impose export restrictions from January 1. The country accounts for60% to 70% of global refined silver supply. Société Générale estimates exportscould fall by 30%. This could deepen an existing global deficit of about 200 to230 million ounces.Possible regulatory action in the United States could addfurther strain. If silver is classified as a national security concern, markettightness could increase. Physical silver is already trading at premiums of 10%to 15% in several major markets.This article was written by Tareq Sikder at www.financemagnates.com.