XAUUSD (H2) – Liam Plan (Jan 02)GoldOANDA:XAUUSDLiamTradingFX Price is compressing in a structure, wait for the trendline break to choose direction 🎯 Quick summary After the strong bearish BOS, gold is rebounding and compressing inside a diagonal structure (triangle/flag-like). Today the clean approach is confirmation trading: SELL only after a confirmed break of the trendline (4348–4350) as marked on your chart. SELL reactions at the upper supply / VAL zones (4460–4463 and 4513–4518). BUY is secondary — only if price holds the 4400–4405 key support and shows a clear reaction on lower timeframes. Macro backdrop (CME FedWatch) Probability Fed holds rates in January: 85.1% Probability of a 25 bps cut in January: 14.9% By March: probability of 25 bps cumulative cut: 51.2%, hold 42.8%, 50 bps cut 5.9% 👉 This keeps markets sensitive to USD / yields expectations. Gold can bounce technically, but volatility spikes are likely — so we stick to levels + confirmation. Key Levels (from your chart) ✅ Sell zone 1: 4513 – 4518 ✅ Sell VAL: 4460 – 4463 ✅ Reaction / flip zone: 4400 – 4405 ✅ Breakdown trigger: 4348 – 4350 (sell upon confirmed trendline breakout) Trading scenarios (Liam style: trade the level) 1) SELL scenarios (priority) A. SELL on trendline breakdown confirmation Trigger: clean break + close below 4348–4350 Entry: sell the retest back into the broken trendline TP1: 4320–4305 TP2: 4260–4240 TP3: deeper extension (towards the 41xx area) if momentum expands Logic: This is the clearest “trend confirmation” on your chart. No chasing — let price confirm first. B. SELL reaction at supply Sell: 4460–4463 (VAL) Stronger sell: 4513–4518 (premium supply) Only sell with visible weakness / rejection on M15–H1. 2) BUY scenario (secondary – reaction only) Buy zone: 4400–4405 Condition: hold the zone + print higher lows on lower TF TP: 4460 → 4513 (scale out) Logic: This is a key support/flip area. If it holds, price can rotate up to test supply above before the next decision. Key notes Compression often creates false breaks — don’t trade mid-range. Two clean plays only: break 4348–4350 to sell with confirmation, or retrace to 4460/4513 to sell the reaction. What’s your bias today: selling the 4348 breakdown, or waiting for 4460–4463 for a cleaner pullback sell?