Early 2026-Sentiment: Heavy Buy Indices, Extreme Long Commodities, Mixed in FXView all comments (0)0Indices: Strong 2025 Finish Despite Mild Year-End Pullback- US equity index futures are up with the gains strongest for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100; 2025 concludes with the S&P 500 (y/y +16.7% to 6,845), Nasdaq 100 (y/y +20.4% to 25,249), Dow 30 (y/y +13.4% to 48,063), and Russell 2000 (y/y +11.2% to 2,481) all posting solid gains despite mild year-end profit-taking, their third consecutive year of double-digit returns as investors consider elevated valuations and anticipate that 2026 may be more selective on the AI front; Treasury yields ended Wednesday modestly higher after firm jobless claims (see Data below) reinforced a resilient labour market, though the 10-year remains well below last year’s levels following multiple Fed cuts in 2025, and market pricing (CME’s FedWatch) points to expectations for further easing in 2026, with a first cut most likely in the spring and limited conviction beyond two moves over the yearStocks: Nike Jumps on Insider Buying- Shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) (-0.6%) finished modestly lower, consolidating after a strong 2025 as AI momentum pauses into the final session of the year despite continued optimism around 2026 demand and production ramp headlines- Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares (-1%) edged lower ahead of the company’s quarterly/annual production and delivery figures- Nike (NYSE:NKE) shares (+4.1%) rally after disclosures showed insider buying by a couple board members as well as its CEO, offering investors some confidence after a difficult year for the footwear giant- Shares of Warner Bros Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) fell back 0.5% on a report it’s planning to reject Paramount Skydance’s (NASDAQ:PSKY) (-0.8%) bid- Meme stock movers: Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND) (-3.2%), GoPro (-4.1%), AMC (-2.5%), GameStop (NYSE:GME) (-2.1%)- Crypto stocks track cryptocurrencies lower amid broad risk-off positioning and year-end profit-taking: Coinbase (-2.4%), MicroStrategy (-2.4%), Mara Holdings (-3.8%), Gemini Space Station (-0.2%), Bullish (-3.7%)Commodities: A Couple of Factors for Precious Metals and an OPEC+ Meeting for WTI- Gold pushes north further into the $4.3K level again, supported by Fed rate-cut expectations and geopolitical risks; silver back above $73 after extreme gains reaching $84 earlier in the week though still enjoys its best year ever; CME hiked margins again on futures contracts for both earlier this week, and Chinese export restrictions on silver items being noted by traders within the sphere- Oil prices (WTI) hover in the $57s, closing out 2025 with their steepest annual decline since 2020 as markets weigh ample global supply, high storage levels, and the post-holiday demand lull; market attention now turns to the weekend OPEC+ meeting for guidance on output; some analysts projecting supply will outpace demand in early 2026 and suggesting prices may need to dip toward the low-$50s to trigger additional production cuts, even as ongoing geopolitical risks provide some short-term support; EIA’s weekly energy inventory estimates (released Wednesday) show a drawdown for oil (-1.9m barrels) but big increases for both gasoline (+5.8m) and distillate (+5m), says U.S. oil production in October reached 13.87m bpd, a record highFX/Central Banks/Crypto:- Early climb for Bitcoin not far off $89K this morning after suffering a 6% drop in 2025, with Ether trading breaching $3K as crypto sentiment remains cautious- US Dollar Index fails to hold in the 98s with a pullback for the greenback this morning, and follows a 9% annual decline last year; EUR/USD had a strong 2025 up 14% with a positive start as Bulgaria adopts the euroCapital.com Client Sentiment: Heavy Buy in Indices, Extreme Buy in Commodities, While Mixed in FX- Indices: Heavy buy in all four U.S. equity indices in the report and not far off extreme long in the S&P (75%) and Russell (77%); elsewhere remain extreme buy in the Hang Seng (87%) and ASX (85%) but on the verge of shifting in the DAX (slight buy 51%)- Commodities: Extreme buy and holding in gold (80%), silver (85%), natural gas (81%), and WTI (87%)- FX: In the middle in EUR/USD (50%/50%), not far off it in GBP/USD and USD/JPY (both slightly buy 54%), while majority short in GBP/JPY (60%)Data: Stronger Claims- U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims came in healthier at 199K, below the 219K forecast and down from 215K previously, with a drop in continuing claims as well (from 1.91m to 1.86m)- Australian manufacturing PMI for December remains in expansionary territory but falls from 52.2 to 51.6Today: More Manufacturing PMIs and Tesla’s Q4 Figures- Manufacturing PMIs (for the U.S. releases at 6:45 pm Dubai time)- Tesla’s Q4 production and delivery figures are expected to be released today- EZ manufacturing PMI (1 pm), money supply and lending dataSunday:- OPEC+ meeting expected to maintain oil output freezeEarly 2026-Sentiment: Heavy Buy Indices, Extreme Long Commodities, Mixed in FXView all comments (0)0