Bitcoin Daily Analysis #22 — Daily BTC Market UpdateBitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDecobyg1Hello everyone, First of all, I hope this year is the year you build your financial freedom. Welcome to my analysis. To start the new year, I want to move from higher timeframes down, so we can walk through the market day by day together. “Here, we’re no longer dealing with daily or 4-hour candles; each candle represents half a year of the market’s life.” Before making any judgment, we have to align our mindset with the timeframe. First: What does a 6M candle actually mean? Each candle = 6 months of market behavior 2 candles ≈ 1 year 3 candles ≈ 1.5 years 4 candles ≈ 2 years 📌 So here, “candle counting” means: understanding how much time the market spent in each bullish or corrective cycle, and what message those candles delivered. There is no noise here. Each candle is like a chapter in market history. The Language of Candles on the 6M Timeframe On this timeframe: Large green bodies → real buying pressure, growth phase (Markup) Large red bodies → real selling pressure, decline phase (Markdown) Long upper wicks near highs → supply, profit-taking, exhaustion Long lower wicks after drops → absorption of selling, demand stepping in Multiple small candles near the top → distribution or rest A strong opposite candle after a trend → phase-change warning 📌 On 6M, nothing is random. Now let’s go through the cycles, one by one Phase A — The start of major cycles (2011–2013) 2 candles ≈ 1 year Here the market explodes upward with strong green candles. 📌 The market moves from an unknown, low-value phase into excitement. On higher timeframes: Big bodies Shallow pullbacks → Control is clearly in the hands of buyers. Phase B — The first serious bear market (2013–2015) 3 candles ≈ 1.5 years After the sharp pump, the market buys time. Candles are: Mostly red Sometimes with lower wicks (selling absorption) 📌 Euphoria must be drained. Markets don’t grow again without time. Phase C — A clean bullish cycle (2015–2017) 4 candles ≈ 2 years One of the clearest growth phases: Multiple green candles in a row Red candles are short and weak 📌 A real bull trend. Sellers only slow things down — they don’t control price. Phase D — Bear market after the 2017 top 3 candles ≈ 1.5 years Bearish candles plus failed rebounds. 📌 Toward the end of this phase: Red bodies shrink Lower wicks appear → Selling pressure is running out. Phase E — The 2020–2021 cycle 3 candles ≈ 1.5 years The market still grows, but: Corrections are clearer Supply is heavier 📌 The market is bigger now. Growth is still strong — but no longer simple. Phase F — The 2022 crash 1 candle ≈ 6 months This is very important. One red 6-month candle means: 👉 Fast, heavy, one-piece selling. 📌 Shock / cleanup / capitulation-like behavior. If the next candle fails to continue the drop, a base-building phase usually begins. Phase G — The new bullish wave to ~126K 4 candles ≈ 2 years Once again, the familiar rhythm: Major growth ≈ 4 candles Major correction ≈ 3 candles 📌 Near the top: Candles get smaller Upper wicks increase → Exhaustion / distribution. Current Situation (near 2026) Price around 87.7K Recorded high around 126,272 After the top: We see a relatively small, indecisive candle Not a heavy crash Not a decisive continuation upward 📌 The market is in a decision phase — neither clearly bullish nor clearly bearish. The Biggest Mistake Trying to judge this chart with a lower-timeframe mindset (4H / 1D). 📌 On the 6M timeframe, you should think like this: Don’t rush Wait for the next candle for confirmation Don’t call a bear market just because of one small red candle after a top Here, the market speaks through time, not through emotion. ⚠️ Risk Alert ⚠️ Futures are not beginner-friendly. These triggers require solid experience. Before using them, study risk management and practice with the learning content here.