Gold and silver recover from Monday’s plunge as implied volatility remains highDollar searches for direction while US stocks mostly skip the Santa RallyRisk markets would enjoy dovish FOMC minutes todayOil reacts to Russian rhetoric and Trump’s threats towards IranNever a Dull Day in MarketsThe final trading days of a rather eventful year could not be quiet, once again confirming the historical tendency of the period between Christmas and New Year generating significant market moves. Notably, one-month implied volatility remains rather elevated across asset classes, led by commodities and yen crosses, with the exception of key stock markets such as the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 indices.After a record-breaking year, commodities are in the spotlight. Gold and silver posted extraordinary sell-offs on Monday, with the former declining by more than 5% and silver diving by 14% from their intraday highs. Both are recovering today, with the latter flirting with the $75 level once again. However, it is evident that, apart from the demand-supply picture favouring the upside, the acute moves can also be attributed to speculation, amplified by the very thin liquidity.Amidst this challenging environment, equities are not really joining the festive spirit and remain under pressure. Although the S&P 500 index posted a fresh all-time high last week, the remaining major equity indices have yet to experience the traditional Santa Rally this year.FOMC Minutes in the SpotlightLater today the FOMC minutes from the December 10 Fed meeting will be released. Usually, the minutes do not tend to be market-moving, partly due to the plethora of Fed speakers offering insight into the preceding meeting. However, considering the scarce Fedspeak and the relatively light data calendar, the minutes could indeed prompt a market reaction.Apart from gaining further colour on the around-the-table discussion that led to the third consecutive rate cut, investors will focus on commentary about both the inflation and labour market outlooks. As a reminder, the dot plot points to one extra 25bps rate cut in 2026 while markets are currently pricing in 61bps additional easing.Based on the prevailing sentiment, hawkish minutes are probably going to be quickly dismissed by the market, although the dollar could enjoy a small boost. Interestingly, its performance has been mixed this week, trying to recover some of its monthly losses against both the euro and the pound.On the other hand, a dovish set of minutes might be welcomed by risk markets, potentially resulting in a modest bid in equity markets, although this might not be sufficient to reverse the current weak risk appetite seen in US equity indices.Chinese PMIs MatterNotably, overnight the NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI surveys, and the RatingDog Manufacturing PMI will be released. There have been a number of articles about the Chinese government adopting a more proactive fiscal approach in 2026 to support consumption and investment. A weak set of PMIs could set the wheels in motion for fresh support programme announcements during January, ahead of the mid-February New Year holiday.Oil Takes Notice of GeopoliticsSunday’s Trump-Zelenskyy meeting kept the door open to an agreement between Ukraine and Russia in the foreseeable future despite the evident sticking points that have hampered real progress in the current US-led attempt to end the four-year old conflict.However, sentiment has probably turned sour following reports that Ukrainian drones targeted Putin’s residence. Coupled with the Trump-Netanyahu meeting and the US President threatening to attack Iran if there are signs of fresh attempts to rebuild Tehran’s nuclear capabilities, oil is tentatively edging higher towards the $59 area.