Tesla Is About to Report Fourth-Quarter Deliveries. The Number May Be Weak -- And Investors May Not Care

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Tesla's vehicle sales growth again -- likely sometime in 2026.These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires ›Despite returning to double-digit year-over-year revenue growth in Q3, fueled by a return to growth in vehicle deliveries, it's unlikely that Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) kept up this momentum in Q4, despite recently introducing a lower-cost version of its Model Y. This is because Q3 benefited from a pull-forward in demand as buyers rushed to get electric vehicles before the federal electric-vehicle credit expired. In addition, deliveries far exceeded production in Q3 -- a factor that will likely weigh on fourth-quarter deliveries.We'll soon find out exactly how many vehicles Tesla delivered, as the company typically reports its quarterly deliveries within the first few days following the last day of its quarters. This means the electric-car maker will likely report its fourth-quarter deliveries on January 2nd or 3rd.Ahead of the delivery release, here's a closer look at why fourth-quarter deliveries likely won't be impressive -- and why the story is bigger than Q4 anyway.Cybercab interior. Image source: Tesla.The federal clean-vehicle credit created a hard deadline for electric vehicle shoppers of Sept. 30, 2025. The credit was no longer available for qualifying vehicles purchased after this date, giving buyers a reason to pull future purchases into the third quarter.Tesla's own data on vehicle deliveries show just how significant the acceleration in demand was in Q3. Total third-quarter deliveries rose 7% year over year. That was after they fell 13% year over year in Q2.In addition to a pull-forward in demand in Q3, the company benefited from delivering more vehicles than it produced in the period. Specifically, total third-quarter deliveries were 497,088, and total vehicles produced came in at just 447,450.This inventory drawdown, combined with the loss of a major catalyst for orders, will make achieving big delivery figures difficult for Tesla in Q4.Of course, investors shouldn't get too hung up on what Tesla reports for fourth-quarter deliveries. Clearly, there are some major headwinds working against the company during the period. 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