$PUMP Coin Long Incoming?PUMP / TetherUS PERPETUAL CONTRACTBINANCE:PUMPUSDT.Pbossout10Based on the current buyback policy, where the PUMP company repurchases $1–2 million worth of tokens per day, which appears to represent roughly 98 % of the company’s current earnings, a potential long position when the fully diluted valuation (FDV) reaches $500 million (down from the current ~$1.8 billion) could be considered. However, this idea needs to be evaluated within the broader market context. If Bitcoin were to decline to around $50,000, it is conceivable that PUMP’s price could also pull back toward an FDV of $500 million. This is because crypto asset prices are influenced not only by fundamentals like buybacks and earnings but also by overall market sentiment, supply and demand dynamics, and volatility. A useful historical analogy is Amazon during the 2000s dot-com crash. Despite improving financial performance, Amazon’s share price fell sharply as market sentiment deteriorated. Similarly, even if PUMP’s fundamentals remain solid, it could still experience significant price declines during a broader crypto market downturn, especially if speculative demand weakens. Furthermore, if Bitcoin’s price drops and general participation in the crypto ecosystem shrinks, fewer meme coins may be created on PUMP’s platform. This could reduce transactional volume and potentially diminish the company’s buyback capacity. Finally, the buyback program is not guaranteed, the company may choose to reduce or stop repurchases in the future. Taken together, while a long position near an FDV of $500 million might present an interesting risk-reward setup, it carries significant downside risk if market conditions deteriorate or if buybacks are reduced. [As a conclusion: The idea of going long around an FDV of $500 million is interesting because current buybacks provide visible support. However, this strategy is highly dependent on market sentiment, Bitcoin’s price trajectory, and the continuation of the buyback program. In a market downturn, even a strong buyback mechanism may not prevent significant price declines. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses; this is not financial advice.