Karachi, 02 January 2026 – The Pakistani rupee greeted the new calendar year on a firmer footing, with the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) fixing the USD/PKR mark-to-market currency rate at Rs 278.6423, a sharp 148-paisa retreat** from the last 2025 close and the leanest print in six weeks.Priority Currencies – Quick Take1. US Dollar (USD) – 278.64 (spot)The 148-paisa drop erases December’s modest rebound and drags the pair back toward the lower edge of its 279–282 range. One-week forwards are quoted at 279.01, implying a skimpy 0.13 % carry. Exporters are selling any test of 279.00, while oil importers buy dips below 278.50.“Year-end corporate squaring has washed out; the currency rate is now hunting for a fresh equilibrium,”* said a senior interbank dealer.2. Saudi Riyal (SAR) – 74.20SAR slips 2 paisa to 74.20; one-year forward is 77.30, an annualised 4.2 %—still the tightest band among major remittance corridors. Exchange booths report brisk walk-in demand from pilgrims locking in ahead of the January Umrah rush.3. UAE Dirham (AED) – 75.86AED softens 2 paisa to 75.86; six-month forward is 77.17, implying 3.5 % annualised rupee softness. UAE salary disbursements continue to migrate to banking channels, keeping the pair quietly anchored.4. Qatari Riyal (QAR) – 75.86QAR mirrors AED at 75.86; 12-month forward is 79.33, a 4.6 % annualised gap—identical to SAR/AED, underscoring uniform Gulf-peg calm.5. Kuwaiti Dinar (KWD) – 903.95KWD drops Rs 7.4 to 903.95 on the weaker USD cross. Twelve-month forwards at 966.50 pencil out to 6.9 % annualised PKR weakness—wider than GCC peers owing to thinner dinar liquidity.6. Bahraini Dinar (BHD) – 739.09BHD retreats Rs 4.1 to 739.09; six-month forward is 750.04, an annualised 3.0 %—the flattest curve among Gulf units. Manama-linked IT remittances remain steady.7. Australian Dollar (AUD) – 172.53The “Aussie” tumbles to 172.53 as iron-ore dips below $98/t. One-year forward is 180.98, implying 4.9 % annualised rupee deprecation—almost flat against the SAR curve, confirming that AUD/PKR moves are driven by commodity swings rather than PKR risk.8. Canadian Dollar (CAD) – 193.44The “Loonie” slips to 193.44 as WTI crude eases to $75/bbl. Twelve-month forwards at 205.03 still pencil out to 6.0 % annualised rupee softness, but importers of prairie pulses are said to have covered February shipments early, capping further CAD losses.Other Majors – Single-Paragraph Round-UpEuro opens at 288.88, down 1.2 % on the week after softer German CPI data; one-year forward is 307.94, translating into 6.6 % annualised rupee weakness. Sterling dips to 348.89, little moved after BoE rhetoric cooled rate-cut bets. Japanese yen remains the cheapest major at 1.78 per unit, but forwards price 7.8 % annualised PKR decline—the steepest among G-10 pairs. Swiss franc is 308.01; Singapore dollar 204.67; Swedish krona 25.21; Norwegian krone 24.52; Danish krone 38.74; New Zealand dollar 156.28; Chinese yuan 39.97; Turkish lira 6.52; Russian ruble 3.56; Indian rupee 3.11; Bangladeshi taka 2.29—all inside well-worn ranges and implying no event-risk premium ahead of the IMF’s first-quarter 2026 review.Market Context & OutlookThe uniformly slender forward premiums—barely 5–7 % annualised even for the least-liquid pairs—tell currency desks that both importers and exporters believe the State Bank has enough cover to defend the rupee through the winter remittance season. Reserves have risen $1.5 billion in six weeks to $20.6 billion, while the real effective exchange rate (REER) slipped to 98.2 in November, a level the IMF considers “competitive but not undervalued.” Unless oil spikes above $90 or political noise disrupts the Fund programme, traders expect the USD currency rate to remain hand-cuffed to the 278–282 corridor for the opening quarter of 2026, dragging the rest of the currency mosaic along in its slipstream.