BTCUSDT - Upper-Range FadeBTCUSDT Perpetual ContractBYBIT:BTCUSDT.Pminno91A) Market Summary BTC is spending the morning hovering around 88.6–88.9k, basically doing cardio without going anywhere. Intraday range so far: 87.5k low → 88.9k high, slightly green day after yesterday’s close near 88k. The vibe? 👉 Post-New-Year indecision. 👉 Everyone waiting for a breakout… 👉 90k still acting like a bouncer with a very strict guest list. Below 87k sits the first “oh no” intraday support. Until one of these breaks, BTC is just ping-ponging inside the box. ⸻ B) Trade Decision ✅ Intraday trade available Yes, we trade boredom too. ⸻ C) Setup – Range Fade Short @ 88.9–89.3k Because when the market refuses to trend, you fade the edges. •Direction: Short (mean-reversion, not a heroic top call) •Entry (limit): 88,900 – 89,300 (aka “just below where Twitter gets bullish”) •Stop-loss: 90,200 (Above short-liq heaven and fake-breakout territory) •Take-profit: •TP1: 88,000 (pay yourself, feel good) •TP2: 87,400 (pay yourself again, feel smarter) •R:R: ~1 : 2.0 – 1 : 2.5 •Time validity: Today only, until end of US session (~22:00 CET) After that → this trade turns into a pumpkin 🎃 ⸻ D) Trade Logic (Why This Isn’t Random Gambling) Macro context •No FOMC. No NFP. No Powell jump-scares. •Post-holiday sentiment is mildly optimistic, but not “send it” bullish. •Translation: price respects levels, not headlines. ⸻ Market structure & liquidity •BTC has been stuck between ~87k support and ~90k resistance for days. •Today’s high at 88.9k sits right under the 90k short-liq danger zone. •Until 87.5k breaks, structure = range, not trend. This setup is simply: 👉 Sell the ceiling, 👉 Buy it back closer to the floor. Not sexy. Just effective. ⸻ Derivatives & positioning •BTC futures open interest dropped ~5% into year-end and is only slowly rebuilding. •This is a post-leverage hangover environment, not a squeeze factory. •Less fuel for a violent breakout → more room for range fades. Bonus: Recent liquidations were not massive, meaning the 90k short-liq cluster is still juicy and untouched. ⸻ Order book – confirmation / warning signs •Aggregated L2/L3 data shows: •Asks stacked above 89k •Real bids waiting lower near 88k → 87.5k That’s textbook fade conditions. ⚠️ Warning: •If a fat bid wall suddenly camps at 89k and absorbs everything → this short idea gets demoted to “nice try”. Right now though, 90k looks more like supply than support. ⸻ E) Invalidation Rules (How Not to Die on a Hill) Price-based •Hard invalidation: •15M close above 90,200 •Or a fast, impulsive move above 90.5k with volume and no rejection At that point, this is no longer a fade — it’s a breakout audition. You exit. You don’t argue. •If price never reaches 88.9–89.3k → no trade. Do not short the middle of the range like a bored raccoon. ⸻ Time-based •Valid only today. •After 22:00 CET: •Either TP/SL hit •Or close manually and sleep like a responsible adult No overnight “hopium holds”. ⸻ Macro-based •Surprise ETF headlines, regulation bombs, or major hacks? •Instantly changes the game. •In that case: close first, think later. ⸻ Order-book-based •Strong, persistent bid absorption at 88.9–89.3k → skip or exit. •Spoof asks above 89k + fast wick rejection → good fade confirmation. •Clean acceptance above 90k → hands off, no revenge trades