Seven people have died amid the ongoing protests in Iran, which began in the last week of December. While demonstrations have now slowed in the capital, Tehran, they are spreading to other cities and some rural areas, according to the Associated Press.On Friday (January 2), US President Donald Trump wrote in a social media post, “If Iran shots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”So far, the protests are reportedly smaller in scale than the 2022 rallies, held following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody, after she refused to adhere to strict rules on wearing the hijab.Videos showed officers facing off with the protesters, who set objects on fire on the streets and sloganeered against the government, shouting, “Shameless! Shameless!” President Masoud Pezeshkian has acknowledged the validity of a key driver for the agitation: frustrations over Iran’s economic conditions.Not too well. The World Bank said in a recent analysis that “GDP growth slowed to 3.7 percent in 2024/25 (the Iranian calendar year starts on March 20), the lowest in five years, driven by a sharp deceleration in the oil sector.”Other metrics are also worrying. One US Dollar currently equals around 1.4 million Iranian rials, and the AP reported that the inflation rate in December rose to 42.2% from last year. Food and health-related goods are also much more expensive now. In recent days, the head of the Central Bank has stepped down.The World Bank’s analysis further said, “Recent growth headwinds add to labor market challenges… On average, only 3.8 in 10 working age Iranians are employed; for women, the rate is just 1.2 in 10. Aging demographics and emigration, particularly among the highly educated youth, are eroding human capital and growth prospects… The recent growth slowdown and GDP contraction is expected to push 2 million people into poverty in 2025.”What’s driving these numbers?Story continues below this adAt a broader level, Iran has faced several rounds of economic sanctions for decades, ever since a theocratic government was created after the 1979 Islamic Revolution.Economic sanctions are nothing but restrictions on certain companies or individuals, barring them from engaging in economic activities with others (for example, a particular country). Several Western nations applied these sanctions with greater intensity in the 2010s, in a bid to stop Iran from building nuclear weapons. These efforts included secondary sanctions, which target even third parties for purchasing goods from a sanctioned entity.Opinion | Will the revolt in Iran escalate into a revolution?Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy said, “In 2010, the United States imposed new, secondary sanctions that increased the pressure on Iran by compelling foreign companies and banks to withdraw from Iran. In 2012, these efforts were matched by pressure on the customer that bought Iranian oil to reduce their purchases by significant amounts every 180 days or face losing access to the United States. The result was a 1.4 million barrel per day decline in Iranian exports relative to pre-sanctions level.”Iran’s continued economic woes, coupled with the fact that it did not back down from developing its nuclear capabilities (while stating it did not seek to build weapons), led to a shift. By 2015, Iran, the US, and several European nations had negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or the Iran Nuclear Deal, under which Iran would be given relief from most sanctions in exchange for certain limitations on its nuclear programme.Story continues below this adHowever, two years after Trump won the 2016 elections, he withdrew the US from the agreement, calling it a “horrible one-sided deal that should never ever have been made”. Without US support, the deal’s success and the possibility of the West and Iran improving ties appeared remote.In September this year, the UK, France, and Germany (previously part of the JCPOA) activated a “snapback” mechanism that reimposed sanctions after a decade. They cited a lack of cooperation from the Iranian government and its attempts at developing nuclear capabilities for the decision.Iran also stopped neutral inspections of its nuclear facilities this year, which was mandated under the deal, after Israel and the US bombed several of its nuclear sites and military bases in June, the BBC reported.And are there other issues at play?While the protests reportedly began with Iranian shopkeepers rallying against the currency depreciation and inflation, other groups, such as students, have also joined them, with some anti-government slogans heard during the rallies.Story continues below this adIn recent social media posts, Pezeshkian wrote, “The livelihood of the people is my daily concern. We have fundamental actions on the agenda to reform the monetary and banking system… I have tasked the Minister of the Interior to hear the legitimate demands of the protesters through dialogue with their representatives…”However, he added, “The response of the Islamic Republic of Iran to any oppressive aggression will be harsh and regrettable.”Iran and nuclear power | 60% uranium enrichment: Why Iran’s claims of not pursuing nuclear weapons lack credibilityAt this stage, it is unclear whether the protests could spiral into a more widespread or sustainable movement, but such possibilities have been floated for multiple reasons. First is a sense of the Iranian population’s waning trust in their government to deliver a better quality of life. This was witnessed in the 2024 presidential elections, where the first round saw only 40% voter turnout — the lowest since 1979.AK Ramakrishnan, a former Professor at the Centre for West Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University’s School of International Studies, told The Indian Express at the time that it did not mean total citizen apathy towards politics. However, it did suggest “an overall despondency, and that Iranians believe their political voice is not bringing the transformation they want, including relief from economic sanctions and greater freedoms for citizens.”Story continues below this adPezeshkian is more a reformist than a conservative leader in Iran, where the supreme authority lies with Ayatollah Khamenei, 86. In recent years, his regime has faced several setbacks, ranging from Trump ordering the assassination of top general Qasem Soleimani in 2020 to losses endured by Iran-backed organisations, such as Hezbollah and Hamas.While these conditions created an opportunity for greater engagement with the West, the negotiations for another deal broke down earlier this year. For Trump, ensuring limitations on Iran and maintaining Israel’s stronghold in the region mattered, and for Iran, the proximity to the nuclear milestone was important to safeguard its security interests. With no deal, and subsequent attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, any chances of relief for the Iranian economy further dimmed.