NZD/USD Daily: Corrective Bounce Toward Key SupplyNZD/USDOANDA:NZDUSDEdgeTradingJourneyBase bias: short-term corrective upside → potential sell zone higher. Macro context: the USD remains supported by institutional positioning and a resilient US macro backdrop, while NZD continues to look vulnerable. 1️⃣ Technical Structure (Daily) Price reacted strongly from the daily demand area (blue zone) after filling part of the prior impulse. A higher low has formed and price is currently trading inside/around a fair value gap (FVG) aligned with the ascending trendline. A continuation toward the 0.5840–0.5880 supply zone remains possible. As long as price holds above 0.5720–0.5740, the corrective recovery remains intact; a breakdown below that area increases the probability of a move back toward prior lows. RSI is recovering from weakness, consistent with a corrective bounce rather than a confirmed structural reversal. 2️⃣ COT (Commitments of Traders) USD Index: non-commercials remain broadly positioned pro-USD / short NZD. Recent flows show renewed support for the dollar. NZD Futures: non-commercials remain significantly net short. The recent uptick in longs is marginal compared with the broader bearish imbalance. Overall, institutional positioning continues to suggest medium-term downside pressure on NZD. Rallies into key supply zones are more likely to be sell opportunities. 3️⃣ Retail Sentiment Retail traders are ~64% long NZD/USD. Historically, persistent retail long skew often precedes contrarian downside moves. 4️⃣ Seasonality January has historically been weak to neutral-weak for NZD/USD, with average returns below other months and wide variability. Seasonality does not support a sustained bullish trend and aligns more with a temporary bounce followed by renewed selling pressure.