Sugar Prices Gain on the Outlook for Smaller Sugar Production in Brazil

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consulting firm Safras & Mercado said that Brazil's sugar production in 2026/27 will fall by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT expected in 2025/26.  The firm expects Brazil's exports in 2026/27 to fall -11% y/y to 30 MMT.Were There Many Surprises In Monday Morning's Markets?Below-Average Rain in Brazil Boosts Coffee PricesHow Much Higher Will Oat Prices Go in 2026?Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today!Sugar prices were under pressure earlier this month amid prospects of higher sugar exports from India, after India's food secretary said the government may permit additional sugar exports to reduce a domestic supply glut.  Last month, India's food ministry said it would allow mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies.Signs of a larger sugar crop in India, the world's second-largest producer, are undercutting prices after the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) on November 11 raised its 2025/26 India sugar production estimate to 31 MMT from an earlier forecast of 30 MMT, up +18.8% y/y.  The ISMA also cut its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India to 3.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which may allow India to boost its sugar exports.  Meanwhile, the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported on December 15 that Indian 2025-26 sugar production from October 1 to December 15 jumped +28% y/y to 7.83 MMT. The outlook for record sugar output in Brazil is bearish for prices.  Conab, Brazil's crop forecasting agency, on November 4 raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from a previous forecast of 44.5 MMT.  Unica reported on December 16 that Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through November rose by +1.1% y/y to 39.904 MMT.  Also, the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rose to 51.12% in 2025/36 from 48.34% in 2024/25.On the bearish side for sugar, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) on November 17 forecast a 1.625 million MT sugar surplus in 2025-26, following a 2.916 million MT deficit in 2024-25.  ISO said the surplus is being driven by increased sugar production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan.  ISO is forecasting a +3.2% y/y rise in global sugar production to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26.  Meanwhile, sugar trader Czarnikow on November 5 boosted its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT, up +1.2 MMT from a September estimate of 7.5 MMT.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoS&P Futures6,928.50 -15.75 (-0.23%)Dow Futures48,595.00 -55.00 (-0.11%)Nasdaq Futures25,593.00 -82.25 (-0.32%)Russell 2000 Futures2,510.40 -7.30 (-0.29%)VIX14.33 +0.13 (+0.92%)Gold4,335.10 -51.20 (-1.17%)Trending tickersBTC-USD Bitcoin USD 88,376.26 +1,063.91 (+1.22%)NIO NIO Inc. 5.50 +0.16 (+3.00%)ETH-USD Ethereum USD 2,971.23 +29.61 (+1.01%)XRP-USD XRP USD 1.87 +0.01 (+0.56%)VNDA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. 7.03 -0.17 (-2.36%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersRARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. 22.78 +3.06 (+15.52%)FTAI FTAI Aviation Ltd. 197.68 +24.85 (+14.38%)FRMI Fermi Inc. 8.09 +0.57 (+7.58%)UAA Under Armour, Inc. 5.14 +0.36 (+7.53%)ONDS Ondas Holdings Inc. 8.99 +0.53 (+6.26%)Top losersCORT Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated 70.20 -9.62 (-12.06%)DJTWW Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. 6.85 -0.65 (-8.67%)VIPS Vipshop Holdings Limited 18.02 -1.34 (-6.92%)UUUU Energy Fuels Inc. 14.21 -0.86 (-5.71%)RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. 19.59 -1.08 (-5.22%)Most activeNVDA NVIDIA Corporation 187.54 -0.68 (-0.36%)NIO NIO Inc. 5.50 +0.16 (+3.00%)PLUG Plug Power Inc. 1.9400 -0.0300 (-1.52%)INTC Intel Corporation 37.30 +0.62 (+1.69%)TSLA Tesla, Inc. 454.43 -5.21 (-1.13%)Top economic eventsEarnings eventsMy earnings eventsEarnings events