Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD December 30, 2025GoldOANDA:XAUUSDWavePoint_FX Momentum Daily (D1): Daily momentum is currently turning bearish. This suggests the downside trend is likely to continue for the next few days. H4: H4 momentum is turning bullish, indicating a short-term corrective rebound is developing. H1: H1 momentum is compressed, which implies the current upward move may continue, but a potential bearish reversal on H1 remains a risk. Wave Structure Daily Wave Structure (D1): Yesterday’s strong bearish candle with wide range has confirmed a bearish shift in D1 momentum and closed below the Wave 3 high at 4396. This behavior strongly suggests that Wave X has completed, and price has now entered Wave Y. The characteristics of Wave Y were explained in detail in yesterday’s plan. The fact that Wave X exceeded the 4396 high significantly increases the probability of a strong bearish Wave Y. Wave Y targets: - Primary target: 4072 - Extended target: 3761 H4 Wave Structure: The current steep and impulsive decline on H4 suggests a 5-wave structure, which can be interpreted as: - Wave 1 if Wave Y develops as a 5-wave impulse, or - Wave A if Wave Y unfolds as a 3-wave ABC correction. Since the dominant D1 momentum remains bearish, the strategy is to wait for H4 momentum to reach overbought and reverse, then look for sell opportunities on H1. H1 Wave Structure: On H1, a potential 5-wave structure (12345, marked in red) may be forming. The current rebound aligns with the H4 momentum correction, as highlighted in yesterday’s update. Therefore, we will wait for H4 momentum to reverse bearish from overbought conditions before executing sell setups. From the Volume Profile, there is a major high-liquidity boundary around 4405, with an additional liquidity zone above 4471. Given the strength of the current downtrend, 4405 is expected to act as a strong resistance, likely completing Wave 4 (red). This would be followed by Wave 5 (red) pushing price below 4266, or potentially deeper toward 4217. This scenario gains further confirmation if price closes below 4317. If price rallies into the upper liquidity zone above 4471, the current rebound would no longer be considered Wave 4, but instead could be Wave 2 or Wave B within a larger corrective structure. In that case, the plan will be updated accordingly. Trading Plan - SELL ZONE: 4402 – 4405 - Stop Loss: 4422 - TP1: 4348 - TP2: 4317 - TP3: 4266