EUR/USD - 6E FUTURES // SHORT SETUPEuro FX FuturesCME:6E1!philipemavMacro Context The market is currently in a macro distribution phase after a confirmed structural breakdown and failure to re-enter previous value areas. Supply remains dominant, and institutional flow favors continuation to lower value zones. The setup aims to capture the short-term redistribution leg within the broader macro cycle. Technical Structure Bias: Short Structure: Break of Structure → Retest → Redistribution Setup Type: Institutional rejection inside Premium Zone (Wyckoff redistribution pattern) Framework: Medium-term structure aligned with macro distribution Dealing Range: Composed of two consecutive legs, which increases structural ambiguity — focus on the final impulse for precision. Entry Criteria Context aligned: Macro structure confirms bearish bias. Location: Entry at 75% of the total dealing range, or 75% retracement of the final impulse (depending on liquidity context). Confluence factors: Supply Zone aligned with LVN. Presence of maximum negative delta in prior breakdown zone. vPOC cluster near Premium (indicating previous distribution). Confirmation inside the zone: Compression + Wyckoff Redistribution (lower highs, absorption, loss of momentum). 🗓️ Weekly Context Note – November 3–7, 2025 This is Week 1 of the month, typically characterized by institutional repositioning and NFP volatility. The market is expected to remain liquidity-driven and reactive, especially ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll data, which will likely define directional bias for the rest of the month. The COT report was not released this week due to the U.S. government shutdown, limiting visibility into institutional positioning. As a result, traders must rely on price structure, delta flow, and yield curve dynamics for macro confirmation instead of commitment data. Key scheduled events: Mon (Nov 3): ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD) Tue (Nov 4): JOLTs Job Openings (USD) Wed (Nov 5): ISM Services PMI (USD) Thu (Nov 6): BoE Interest Rate Decision (GBP) Fri (Nov 7): Germany Balance of Trade + U.S. NFP, Unemployment Rate & Michigan Sentiment Operational focus: Expect low conviction early in the week as institutions adjust positioning. High-impact volatility likely Thursday–Friday. Avoid premature entries into premium zones prior to NFP. Post-NFP retracements may provide the cleanest opportunities for continuation setups within the macro bias. Analytical note: With COT data unavailable, price action remains the only reliable proxy for institutional flow. Volatility is expected to compress before expanding post-NFP — favor setups only in structurally efficient zones.