IAN AUSTEN2025年10月31日加拿大总理马克·卡尼（左二）出席韩国总统举行的晚宴。卡尼预计将于周五与中国国家主席习近平会晤。 Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesAs poor as Canada’s relations with the United States have been under President Trump, they are even worse with the world’s other superpower, China.在特朗普总统的领导下，加拿大与美国的关系已经很糟糕，而与世界上另一个超级大国中国的关系则更糟。The bond between the two nations has been frayed by bitter acrimony and mistrust on both sides.两国之间的关系因双方的尖锐对立和互不信任而日渐脆弱。Canadian citizens have been used as pawns by China, its top leader publicly humiliated a former Canadian prime minister and the two countries are locked in a brutal tariff war. A recent poll showed that the only nation Canadians generally trust less than the United States is China.加拿大公民被中国当作棋子，中国最高领导人公开羞辱加拿大前总理，两国陷入残酷的关税战。最近的一项民意调查显示，除美国外，加拿大民众总体上最不信任的国家就是中国。Now there is cautious optimism around the first formal meeting since 2017 between the two nations’ leaders.现在，人们对2017年以来两国领导人的首次正式会晤持谨慎乐观态度。That a meeting between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Xi Jinping is even taking place is an example of how Mr. Trump’s global tariff campaign and unpredictable diplomacy have forced a once close U.S. ally to look to China.马克·卡尼总理与习近平的会晤得以举行，印证了特朗普的全球关税攻势和不可预测的外交政策，如何迫使这个曾经亲密的美国盟友转向中国寻求支持。“Trump is the invisible presence in every meeting between two leaders in the world today,” said Roland Paris, an international relations professor at the University of Ottawa. “For Canada, the primary overriding imperative is managing our relations with the United States, our closest trading partner.’’“在当今世界任何双边会晤中，特朗普都是隐形的存在，”渥太华大学国际关系教授罗兰·帕里斯说。“对加拿大来说，最重要的任务是处理好与我们最亲密的贸易伙伴美国的关系。”“But if it’s possible to achieve relief on the Chinese tariffs,” he added, “then that would be a great thing.”“但如果有可能减轻中国的关税，”他还说，“那将是一件好事。”Still, there is reason for tempering expectations for the meeting scheduled for Friday in Gyeongju, South Korea, where both leaders are attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.不过，人们有理由降低对定于星期五在韩国庆州举行的会晤的预期。两国领导人都在那里出席亚太经济合作组织论坛。When Justin Trudeau, a Liberal, became prime minister in 2015, relations between the countries had been tense because of persistent criticism of China’s human rights record by the previous Conservative government.2015年，自由党人贾斯汀·特鲁多就任总理时，两国关系因前保守党政府持续批评中国的人权记录而处于紧张状态。Mr. Trudeau made improving the relationship a top priority, but a series of events made it even worse.特鲁多将改善两国关系作为首要任务，但一系列事件使这种关系变得更糟。In 2018, a top Chinese telecommunications executive was arrested in British Columbia under an extradition request from the United States, and then, days after, China imprisoned two Canadians. All three were released in what effectively amounted to a prisoner swap, but the episode remains a source of deep anger in Canada.2018年，根据美国的引渡请求，一名中国电信高管在不列颠哥伦比亚省被捕，几天后，中国监禁了两名加拿大公民。这三人都得到释放，实际上相当于囚犯交换，但这件事至今仍让加拿大人深感愤慨。迈克尔·斯帕弗（左）和康明凯(Michael Kovrig)，在加拿大官员逮捕了一名中国电信高管几天后，这两名加拿大男子在中国被捕。In 2022, Mr. Xi scolded Mr. Trudeau in front of a news cameraman at a reception in Indonesia, accusing him of leaking details of a brief conversation they had at an earlier reception. The exchange resembled an encounter between a stern schoolmaster and a pupil.2022年，习近平在印尼一场招待会上当着新闻摄像师的面训斥特鲁多，指责他泄露了两人在先前招待会上简短交谈的细节。这场交锋宛如严厉的校长训斥学生。This year a Canadian inquiry found evidence of election meddling in Canada by China, though there was no evidence that it successfully influenced the outcomes of any votes.今年，加拿大的一项调查发现了中国干预加拿大选举的证据，尽管没有证据表明此举成功地影响了任何投票的结果。More recently, China applied tariffs of up to 100 percent on canola, an oil seed that accounted for about 5 billion Canadian dollars, or about $3.6 billion, in sales last year, making it Canada’s most valuable agricultural export to China.最近，中国对油菜籽征收了高达100%的关税。油菜籽去年的销售额约为50亿加元（约合36亿美元），是加拿大对中国最有价值的农产品出口。China went after canola after Canada’s imposed a 100 percent tariff on Chinese electric vehicles.中国对油菜籽采取行动，是在加拿大对中国电动汽车征收100%的关税之后。Despite the bad feelings, some experts believe there is room to move in a more productive direction.尽管双方关系紧张，一些专家认为仍有向更有成效的方向发展的空间。“The world has changed quite dramatically compared to, let’s say, six months ago,” said Lynette Ong, a political scientist and Asian specialist at the University of Toronto.“与六个月前相比，世界已经发生了巨大的变化，”多伦多大学政治学家、亚洲问题专家林奈特·翁说。Aside from Mr. Trump’s wave of tariffs, the most significant change, she said, is the stalling Chinese economy, which is forcing Mr. Xi to re-evaluate his country’s external relations.她指出，除特朗普的关税大潮外，最显著的变化是中国经济增速放缓，这迫使习近平重新评估对外关系。“When the economy was far stronger, he had sour relations with a bunch of countries — he did not care and he could afford to do so,” she said. “Now they need to drive exports for economic recovery.”“当经济强劲得多的时候，他与一些国家的关系恶化——他不在乎，而且他有底气，”她说。“现在他们需要推动出口以促进经济复苏。”周四，习近平主席的车队途经韩国釜山金海国际机场附近时，前来迎接的人们。Wang Di, the Chinese ambassador to Canada, recently said in a social media post that ending the electric vehicle tariffs would “usher in the spring of improvement” in bilateral relations. Mr. Wang, in an interview with Canadian television, said such a move would prompt China to drop its levies on canola.中国驻加拿大大使王镝最近在社交媒体上发帖称，取消电动汽车关税将为双边关系开启“改善发展的春天”。王镝在接受加拿大电视台采访时说，此举将促使中国取消对油菜籽征收的关税。Mr. Carney is also facing pressure at home. Two premiers in provinces that produce canola have asked the government to drop the electric vehicle tariff.卡尼在国内也面临压力。有两位油菜籽生产省份的省长要求政府降低电动汽车的关税。Canada has effectively shut out electric vehicles made in China after heavy campaigning by automakers in Detroit and Unifor, the union that represents Canadian workers.在底特律的汽车制造商和代表加拿大工人的联合工会发起激烈运动后，加拿大实际上已将中国制造的电动汽车拒之门外。But the tariff is protecting companies that have been withering for years, said Greig Mordue, a professor at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario, and former general manger of Toyota’s Canadian factories.安大略省汉密尔顿市麦克马斯特大学教授、丰田加拿大工厂前总经理格雷格·莫杜说，关税保护的是那些多年来一直在萎缩的公司。This month the automaker Stellantis moved production of a Jeep vehicle from a Canadian factory to the United States, leaving the suburban Toronto plant’s fate uncertain. And General Motors discontinued production of an electric van, leaving a second Ontario auto plant dark.本月，汽车制造商斯特兰提斯将一款吉普车的生产从加拿大的一家工厂转移到了美国，使这家位于多伦多郊区的工厂的命运变得不确定。通用汽车停止生产一款电动厢式车，使安大略省的第二家汽车厂陷入停产状态。“General Motors used to build 1.2 million vehicles or so a year in this country as recently as 20 years ago,” Mr. Mordue said. “And now they’re down to 100,000.”“就在20年前，通用汽车每年还在这个国家生产120万辆左右的汽车，”莫杜说。“现在已经下降到10万。”Today, about three-quarters of cars made in Canada come out of factories owned by Toyota and Honda, both Japanese automakers.如今，在加拿大生产的汽车中，约有四分之三出自日本汽车制造商丰田和本田旗下的工厂。Mr. Mordue said that Canada could better sustain its auto industry through copying its policy for Japanese carmakers: gradually eliminating tariffs on Chinese vehicles if Chinese companies build plants in Canada and start producing an increasing number of cars.莫杜表示，加拿大可以通过复制其对日本汽车制造商的政策来更好地维持其汽车工业：如果中国公司在加拿大建厂并开始生产越来越多的汽车，则逐步取消对中国汽车的关税。位于安大略省温莎市的一家电动汽车电池工厂，由LG和斯特兰提斯共同拥有。Still, Canada will need to calibrate its approach to making the country more welcoming to Chinese imports. Pursuing that route would risk more backlash from Mr. Trump because of the intense global competition between the United States and China.尽管如此，加拿大仍需要调整其方式，使其更能接纳中国进口产品。由于美国和中国之间激烈的全球竞争，此举可能会招致特朗普的更多反弹。“The window is opening a bit and that’s up to the government of Canada to figure out if they’re prepared to try to pry that window open a little bit more and deal with the inevitable outcome,” Mr. Mordue said.“这扇窗微微打开了一点，是否打算再打开一点，并应对随之而来的必然结果，取决于加拿大政府，”莫杜说。Xu Yanzhou, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told Chinese media that a major pivot by Canada toward China was unlikely because of its longstanding security dependence on the United States as well as fears of retaliation from the Trump administration.中国社科院研究员徐晏卓对中国媒体表示，加拿大不太可能将重心转向中国，因为加拿大在安全上长期依赖美国，而且担心特朗普政府的报复。Ottawa’s “defensiveness toward China remains prominent,” she said, “and their stance on core sensitive areas has not fundamentally shifted.”她说，渥太华“对华防备心理依然突出，在核心敏感领域的立场并未发生根本转变”。Mr. Xi may well have other issues to raise at the meeting. Canada has used foreign investment laws to reject takeovers of Canadian companies, particularly in natural resources, as a national security concern.习近平主席在会晤中可能还会提出其他议题。加拿大曾以国家安全为由，利用外国投资法拒绝对加拿大公司的收购，尤其是自然资源领域的公司。Still, China’s human rights record and its effort to undermine democracies will limit what Mr. Carney could offer.尽管如此，中国的人权记录及其破坏民主的行径将限制卡尼所能提供的帮助。“It is a fraught challenge trying to find a basis on which to trade with a country with whom you disagree with in some fundamental ways,” said Stewart Prest, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia. “Yet the fact remains that both countries can benefit economically and politically as well from finding a common cause on which to work.”“试图与在某些根本问题上存在分歧的国家建立贸易基础，是一项令人担忧的挑战，”不列颠哥伦比亚大学政治学家斯图尔特·普雷斯特说。“然而，事实仍然是，两国都可以从找到共同的事业中受益，也可以从经济和政治上受益。”As he left Malaysia, the first stop on a weeklong tour of Asia, Mr. Carney noted that his talks with China were “starting from a very low base” and suggested that was a plus.在离开为期一周的亚洲之行首站马来西亚时，卡尼指出，他与中国的谈判“起点极低”，并表示这是一个优势。“There’s no preset offer,” Mr. Carney said. ‘This is the difference between relationship and transaction. We’re starting a relationship, building up the relationship.”“没有预设的方案，”卡尼说。“这就是关系和交易的区别。我们正在开启并经营一段关系。”Vivian Wang和Siyi Zhao自北京对本文有报道贡献。Ian Austen为时报报道加拿大新闻，常驻渥太华。他报道加拿大的政治、文化和与加拿大人有关的新闻已有20年。欢迎通过电邮austen@nytimes.com与他联系。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。