USD/CHF Coiled for November BreakoutU.S. Dollar / Swiss FrancFOREXCOM:USDCHFFOREXcomThe Swiss Franc is back on the defensive this week, with USD/CHF up more than 1.2% in the wake of the Fed rate decision. The three-day advance has extended into technical resistance heading into the weekly and monthly close, and the focus now turns to a potential inflection off this key zone. USD/CHF is trading within the confines of a proposed ascending pitchfork extending off the monthly lows. The break of the weekly opening-range on Fed-day extended into the 75% parallel with price now testing resistance at 8040- a region defied by the 100% extension of the advance off the monthly low and the April swing low. A topside breach / close above this threshold would expose the September / October swing highs at 8072/76. Strength surpassing this hurdle would be needed suggest that a more significant low is in place / a larger trend reversal is underway with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 100% extension of the broader September advance at 8120 and the August high / May low at 8172/85 (both levels of interest for possible exhaustion / price inflection IF reached). Initial support rests with the August low-day close (LDC) at 8007 and is backed by the objective October open at 7964. Losses below this threshold would invalidate the near-term uptrend with a break / close below the July LDC at 7911 ultimately needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend towards the yearly lows. Bottom line: USD/CHF continues to coil within the broader September range, and the focus is on a breakout of this multi-week consolidation pattern. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to 7964 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 8076 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance. -MB