A tax-refund surge is coming, JPMorgan strategist says — and it’ll shift US economy like a new round of stimulus checks

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RegExp("[?&]notifications=1(&|#|$)");"desktop"===y&&i&&b.test(window.location.search)&&(i.checked=!0)};ge("ybar-mod-notification",(function(e){var t={isUH3:"crunch"===e.getConfig().ytheme,notifContainer:document.getElementById("notification-container"),notifBadge:document.getElementById("notif-badge"),notifMenu:document.getElementById("ybarNotificationMenu"),notifMenuOpener:document.querySelector("#ybarNotificationMenu + label"),notifDropdown:document.getElementById("notifDropdownContainer"),tooltipContainer:document.querySelector(".".concat($n)),notifLabel:document.querySelector(".".concat(Xn))};t.notifDropdown&&so(e,t)}))}()}};]]>Vishesh RaisinghaniSat, October 11, 2025 at 3:00 PM GMT+2 5 min readThere’s a fresh wave of tax refunds coming for Americans in 2026. That’s according to the chief strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, David Kelly.In a note published on LinkedIn, (1) Kelly explained that many of the tax cuts announced as part of President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) are retroactively effective from January 1, 2025. However, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has confirmed that it will not be adjusting tax withholding rates in 2025.In other words, many taxpayers will pay more upfront and get a bigger refund in 2026. He estimates that the average refund could be roughly $3,743 — that’s up from the average refund of $3,186 for the previous tax year, according to the IRS. (2)An extra $557 in tax refunds sounds like good news, but Kelly warns that this wave of repayments is not spread equally and could have unintended consequences for the wider economy.Thanks to Jeff Bezos, you can now become a landlord for as little as $100 — and no, you don't have to deal with tenants or fix freezers. Here's howI'm 49 years old and have nothing saved for retirement — what should I do? Don't panic. Here are 6 of the easiest ways you can catch up (and fast)Dave Ramsey warns nearly 50% of Americans are making 1 big Social Security mistake — here’s what it is and 3 simple steps to fix it ASAPAlthough the OBBBA cuts taxes, these cuts are focused on specific groups. For instance, the elimination of income taxes is focused on those who earn overtime and tips, while the auto-loan interest deductions are for car owners who purchased a vehicle assembled in the U.S. and financed it recently.There’s also a new deduction for seniors over the age of 65 and a boost to the child tax credit.“All of these tax breaks, with the exception of the child tax credit, are in the form of deductions rather than credits,” Kelly writes in his article. “This means that the higher your marginal tax rate, the greater is the value of the deduction.” (1)In other words, the higher your income the more you benefit from many of these changes to the tax code. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s decision to hike tariffs impacts all consumers.Read more: US car insurance costs have surged 50% from 2020 to 2024 — this simple 2-minute check could put hundreds back in your pocketWhile the Trump administration is cutting taxes on personal income, it’s also raising import taxes (also known as tariffs) on imports. In an interview with Bloomberg, Kelly estimated that the current effective tariff rate is 8% and could rise to 14.5% in the near-future. 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