BTCUSDT – Technical Analysis (1H–4H)BTCUSDT Perpetual ContractBYBIT:BTCUSDT.PSpira_Scalper Date: October 15, 2025 Time Horizon: 24–48 hours 🔹 1. Structural Overview Bitcoin is showing a classic distribution phase after the sharp rebound. A Head & Shoulders pattern has formed between $113,500–$115,900, alongside a double top near the same level — two separate but aligned bearish structures. The market is now testing the neckline, and a break below this area could trigger a new downward impulse toward previous support zones. 🔹 2. Patterns and Signals 🧩 Head & Shoulders (1H) Left shoulder: around $113,000 Head: top near $115,950 Right shoulder: about $113,500 Neckline: around $111,000 (yellow sloping trendline on the chart) 📉 Target on breakdown: $105,500–$106,000 (Fib 76.4% + previous intraday target). This aligns with the low-volume node and VWAP bottom, marking strong technical support. 🧩 Double Top Double top between $115,950 and $115,600 confirms a top structure and loss of buying momentum. The “neckline” coincides with the H&S base — around $111,000, meaning a break here would confirm both patterns simultaneously, a strong bearish signal. 🔹 3. Key Levels Support Zones (Buy Areas) 1️⃣ $111,000–$110,500 → neckline support (critical; a break = confirmed breakdown) 2️⃣ $108,500 → flush low and VWAP cluster 3️⃣ $106,000–$105,500 → main target if H&S completes 4️⃣ $101,000 → extreme low (Fib 100% + psychological level) Resistance Zones (Sell Areas) 1️⃣ $113,500 → right shoulder / local top 2️⃣ $115,600–$115,950 → double top / previous liquidity zone 3️⃣ $118,000–$119,500 → macro resistance and pre-drop supply area 🔹 4. Momentum and Indicators RSI (1H): around 40 → showing weakness, no overbought signals → room for further downside. MACD (1H): still bearish, no bullish crossover yet → momentum remains down. Stoch RSI (4H): in the lower zone but without a clear reversal → possible short pause before another leg down. ADX (4H): 42–45 → trend remains strong, no sign of losing momentum. ➡️ Overall, the indicators confirm a bearish pattern with strong trend continuation, though small bounces may occur. 🔹 5. Volume and Market Structure Volume Profile: highest around $113K–$114K (right shoulder area) where sellers dominate. Volume below neckline is still light → suggests the market is waiting for confirmation before the next major move. Open Interest: stable after the recent flush → market may be ready for another move without excessive positioning noise. 🔹 6. Scenarios 📉 Scenario 1 – H&S Breakdown (Most Likely) Break below $111,000 → activates the pattern. Target: $105,500–$106,000 (Fib 76.4% + prior trendline support). RSI likely to drop below 35 once confirmed. Volume confirmation: at least +15–20% increase during breakdown. 📈 Scenario 2 – False Breakdown and Rebound If buyers defend $111,000 and push back above $113,500, a short-term short squeeze toward $115K is possible. Could occur if macro news or sentiment improves. 🔹 7. Conclusion BTC currently shows two bearish formations (H&S + Double Top), with $111,000 acting as the critical pivot level. A confirmed breakdown below this line will likely trigger a strong move toward $106K–$105K. Short-term bias: 🔻 Bearish Mid-term (24–48h): 🔻 Downside toward $108K–$106K most probable Bullish only if price breaks and holds above $113,500.