Forex Weekly Review: fundamental analysis, + the week ahead US Dollar/Japanese YenFX:USDJPYjohnelfedforexblogAlthough the US government shutdown continues, there was still a lot of information to take in during the week starting Monday 6 October. Starting with the JPY 'opening gap', weekend news that new LDP leader TAKACHI is likely to induce policies positive for growth and Japanese stocks but negative for the JPY currency, when added to the previous Friday's dovish UEDA comments, it all equaled a very weak JPY, at least for the first few days of the week. Next up, The RBNZ took the spotlight with a 0.5bp rate cut and dovish commentary. Considerably weakening the NZD. Similar to the JPY, it was a very big initial move and the problem with very big moves in a short space of time, is that (I personally) always feel that it's inevitable the chart will pull back fairly significantly. Therefore, if you're not at the chart to take advantage very soon after the news, it's often a case of waiting for a pullback before feeling confident in a trade. The USD had bouts of strength throughout the week, I didn't note a particular catalyst. The FOMC minutes and a slue of FED speakers didn't really tell us anything new. Its likely USD JPY liquidity played a part in USD strength and I did read expectations the number of FED rate cuts next year are being re-evaluated, thanks to the strong US consumer. But, ultimately, we could do with the shutdown ending and data being reported to get a true reflection of where the USD stands. Political uncertainty in France didn't have a lasting effect on the EUR, but it's something to keep an eye on. As the week wore on, with the JPY being so weak, we did get the inevitable 'intervention chatter'. I did think I'd woken up in 2023 at one point, reading about "undesirable rapid Forex moves". I do think USD JPY needs to reach 155 / 160 before we'll see actual intervention. But if the 'intervention script' remains the same, any 'BOJ jawboning' 'should' eventually turn into a JPY short opportunity. Finally, never too far from the spotlight, the US president treated us to some 'fresh tariff news', causing a 'risk off' end to the week. Similar to the JPY, if the 'tariff script' remains the same, any negative sentiment will likely be bought. On a personal note, it was a week of two trades. An AUD NZD long following a pullback post RNBZ, which just made it to the profit target. On Friday, I ended the week with a CAD NZD short based on positive Canadian data, I was a little late to that trade and it coincided with the 'tariff news' which perhaps fortunately gave the chart an extra boost lower. I begin the new week tentatively watching for a resumption of 'risk on sentiment' but it depends how affected sentiment is by the tariff news. I also continue to have a bias for 'interest rate speculation' trades. Results: Trade 1: AUD NZD +1.5 Trade 2: NZD CAD +1 Total = +2.5%