S&P 500 Faces Earnings Test Amid Shutdown Fog and Tariff FearsUS SPX 500OANDA:SPX500USDSroshMayiStocks Face Earnings Test as S&P 500 Heads for Worst Shutdown Performance Since 1990 The S&P 500 slipped on Friday, just two days after hitting a record high, as renewed tariff fears and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown weighed on sentiment. This week marks a key test as major Wall Street banks open the third-quarter earnings season, potentially offering direction amid what analysts call a “vacuum of government data” due to the shutdown. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 logged its 33rd record close of 2025, even as the shutdown that began October 1 dragged on. But Trump’s threat of a “massive increase” in tariffs on Chinese imports erased gains, leaving the index down 2% since the shutdown began — its worst such stretch since 1990, per Dow Jones Market Data. The delay of key reports like CPI inflation data has added “fog” to the market, making it harder to gauge the impact of tariffs on core prices. Still, analysts expect solid Q3 results, especially from banks, with FactSet’s John Butters noting a rare increase in EPS estimates — the first since late 2021. Volatility Returns — But Will Investors Buy the Dip? October, historically the most volatile month, lived up to its reputation. Friday’s drop left traders debating whether it was triggered by Trump’s post or simply profit-taking after record highs. S&P 500 – Technical Outlook Merging with Fundamentals The price dropped sharply by $165 within just six hours, reflecting strong volatility driven by both technical factors and fundamental uncertainty. From now on, market movements are expected to remain highly sensitive, especially as third-quarter earnings season begins this week — a phase that could significantly influence the indices amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Technically, a short-term correction is expected toward 6550 – 6577 before renewed bearish pressure resumes. However, if the price closes a 4H candle below 6484, it would confirm continuation of the bearish trend toward 6450 and 6425, with further downside potential toward 6347 and 6283. On the other hand, as long as the price trades above 6506, buyers may attempt to correct the move upward toward 6550 – 6577. A sustained break below 6484, however, would clearly reestablish the bearish momentum. Pivot Line: 6506 Support Levels: 6450, 6425, 6348 Resistance Levels: 6550, 6570, 6620 Summary Expectation: Next likely direction — bearish continuation, possibly after a minor corrective pullback toward 6,570 – 6,600, unless buyers reclaim control above 6,620.