220% Ethereum rally to $14,000 in 16 weeks? - October 2025Ethereum / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:ETHUSDwithout_worries...if… and a big if, past resistance confirms as support. A few months ago the idea “Ethereum blockchain to $6.6k before dying a slow death” was published by myself in August. The premise behind the bearish outlook is simple enough, the legacy support curve has failed. A recent question to this idea “Ww what would it take to invalidate this bearish outlook?” Please remember, I do not hold this asset or have any interest in it. My opinion is impartial. Two questions all traders and investors must ask: 1. What is the trend? 2. Support and resistance, which is it? You’d be surprised how few actually master those questions, instead preferring the ramblings of the influencer. If you’re reading this, congratulations, you already have patience by making it past the headline. So few do! Let’s have an example: On Ethereum: Question 1 is positive, an uptrend. Ethereum printed a higher low back in April at $1600 Question 2 is negative, price action is very much trading under resistance. I tell you all that to tell you this, it is entirely possible question 2 returns positive with a break of resistance. If a resistance breakout of $4800 occurs AND a 2 week candle body close (ignore wicks) on or above $5000, then in all likelihood the bearish outlook is void. A resistance breakout and support confirmation would see price action continue to rally until $14k, the cycle top. The technical analysis A new 2 month candle shall print next month (November) on the above 2 month chart. Over the last year price action saw resistance at 3400. It is incredible that price action continued to trade in this area for so long until July 2025 breaking the 1st resistance. The recent liquidation event saw price action once again test the 3400 area. It was no surprise price action saw strong demand from this level after trading as resistance for over a year. The folks that panic sold at this level almost certainly made a mistake. Price action is now about to do something very important. IF price action closes the 2 month candle above 4400 in the month of October, then you’ll have a positive answer to question 2! A confirmation of support on past resistance. Positive answers to questions one and two is a green light for a long entry. And more importantly a cancellation of the bearish idea. Why $14k forecast? For this we return to the log growth curve. Like Bitcoin, Ethereum is despite the forecast, an asset rotating from growth to how can I say “Nothing burger”. If you buy the top you’ll be holding onto an asset that trades sideways for 10+ years. Ethereum continues to see growth rising until its breakdown in April 2022, the red arrow. A break of growth does not mean price action cannot continue to rise, but it does mean the rate of growth is now in decline. The medium growth (black line) that was past support is now due a resistance test. Why should this offer resistance now when it broke up in March 2021? Each market top of Ethereum (just like Bitcoin) saw price action top out at a reduced resistance Fibonacci level (black arrows). The next level down just so happens to be beneath the medium growth curve. Coincidence? 2 week There’s more.. the same forecast is also matched by a Cup and Handle pattern. Now that’s more than a coincidence. 2 week Cup and Handle Conclusions Ethereum’s technical structure is approaching a decisive moment. The 2 month close for October will likely determine whether the long standing resistance at $4,400–$4,800 transitions into confirmed support, a shift that would completely invalidate the prior bearish outlook. If this confirmation occurs, the path toward $14,000 becomes not just plausible but technically justified. The convergence of a resistance support flip, the log growth curve retest, and a textbook Cup and Handle formation would signal strong alignment across multiple timeframes, a rare occurrence. However, perspective is essential. A 220% move from current levels, while substantial, is not unprecedented in this market and may even lag behind opportunities elsewhere, particularly in equities and emerging sectors. Ethereum’s macro trend remains in a phase of decelerating growth; even if this rally unfolds, it may represent the final euphoric leg before a prolonged consolidation era. In short, Ethereum to $14k if and only if resistance confirms as support. Until then, patience, not prediction, remains the edge. Ww Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion, not financial advice. I don’t hold a position in Ethereum and have no vested interest in the outcome of this analysis. Always do your own research, manage risk, and make decisions based on your own strategy and timeframe. Markets reward patience, not predictions.