Fundamental Market Analysis for October 13, 2025 EURUSDEuro/US DollarSAXO:EURUSDFresh-Forexcast2004The euro remains under pressure amid political uncertainty in France: cabinet formation and the budget timetable still raise questions, and the market is pricing the risk of delays to the draft budget. This worsens the assessment of growth prospects in the euro area and reduces the willingness to allocate new capital to the euro. On the US side, demand for the dollar is supported by a cautious risk tone and ongoing trade-policy discussions between Washington and Beijing. Even during periods of a softer dollar index, some participants prefer to hold USD cash liquidity until macro indicators and the US budget agenda become clearer. The yield differential remains wide, and flows into dollar assets cap the euro’s rebound. Additional pressure comes from weak signals out of Germany, including cooling external trade and cautious price expectations among businesses. As a result, the balance of fundamentals tilts against the euro, while short-term quality flows support the dollar. This underpins a sell-on-rallies approach near current levels with conservative targets. Trade recommendation: SELL 1.16150, SL 1.16650, TP 1.15650