NVDA: Pullback Before the Next AI MoveNVIDIA CorporationBATS:NVDAxfzzhs2tbj🧠Technical Overview NVIDIA is currently testing the integrity of a larger ascending channel after breaking out of a smaller uptrend structure. The setup reflects a potential pullback to the Fair-Value Gap (FVG) zone around $171–$175, where confluence from multiple structural levels may support a continuation of the long-term uptrend. Structural Context: - NVDA broke below a smaller, local uptrend channel, indicating short-term weakness or a deeper retracement phase. - The larger white trend channel remains intact, suggesting the broader bullish structure is still valid unless price decisively breaks below $168. - The FVG and trendline confluence around $171–$175 forms a critical decision zone — potential accumulation area before continuation. Indicators & Momentum: - MACD: Bearish crossover active but showing signs of flattening → potential slowdown in downward momentum. - RSI: Near 45, approaching oversold territory, aligning with potential bounce region. - Volume: Moderate with slight increase during recent sell pressure — suggests controlled pullback rather than full reversal. Scenario Expectation: Base case favors a retest of $171–$175 before continuation upward. If NVDA fails to hold above $168, expect a shift in structure — likely continuation of the larger channel downtrend toward $164–$160 before stabilization. 🌍 Macro & Catalyst Overview 1. AI Demand & Infrastructure Growth NVIDIA continues to dominate AI chip supply, benefiting directly from global GPU infrastructure expansion. Microsoft’s and Nscale’s recent deployment of 200,000 Nvidia GB300 GPUs reinforces NVDA’s market moat and ensures extended demand through 2029. → Bullish Long-Term Catalyst 2. Market wide Valuation Concerns Despite strong fundamentals, AI sector valuations remain stretched. This creates short-term corrective risk — investors rotating between overextended AI names and value sectors. → Neutral / Slightly Bearish Short-Term Catalyst 3. Macro Environment (Q4 2025) Stable U.S. inflation and Fed holding rates steady maintain a neutral-to-positive tech environment. Bond yields leveling off supports risk-on sentiment for semiconductors. 4. Global Supply Chain Notes GPU production remains tight but improving. NVDA’s ongoing partnerships across Europe and Asia mitigate supply bottlenecks, enhancing delivery reliability and forward guidance confidence. Macro Takeaway: While NVDA may experience near-term pullbacks amid valuation cooling and technical corrections, its AI infrastructure dominance and GPU supply deals provide a solid long-term bullish foundation. Any retracement into the $171–$175 range could be viewed as a high-probability re-entry opportunity for continuation traders. 📊 Trading Plan Example Bullish Scenario: Long entries near $171–$175 zone with confirmation of support. Targets: $183 → $192 → $220 Bearish Scenario: Break below $168 confirms structural weakness. Downside target: $164 → $160. Invalidation: 4H close above $183 with strong volume invalidates short-term bear thesis.