Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes felt benefit of favorable officiating as study backs NFL fans’ conspiracy theories

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The Patrick Mahomes era of Kansas City Chiefs football has been such an enigma that scientific research has been conducted to see whether they have benefitted from biased officiating. According to a study conducted by a group from the University of Texas El Paso, there is apparently evidence to suggest that since 2015, the Chiefs have been on the favorable end of officials’ calls in NFL games. GettyMahomes and the Chiefs have benefitted from biased officiating, according to a study by a team at UTEP[/caption]“Our findings suggest that when the league’s financial health is at stake, rule enforcement may subtly shift to protect market appeal,” Spencer Barnes Ph.D., lead author of the study, said. “The fact that postseason penalties consistently favored one franchise, while similar dynasties showed no such pattern, points to the powerful role of financial incentives in shaping supposedly neutral decisions.”The research – which was published in the Financial Review journal – centered around the theory that financial incentives may unconsciously shape NFL referees’ in-game officiating decisions.To test this, the UTEP research group analyzed over 13,000 penalty calls in an eight-year span from 2015-to-2023, with penalty decisions laid bare to the public immediately throughout any given game. With these decisions visible to the masses as they happen, looking at penalty calls was deemed a solid way to study whether – with the star-powered Chiefs and their status as the league’s most marketable franchises at the height of their powers – this has an effect on how referees officiate games, something known as regulatory capture.Their findings found that during the NFL postseason – something the UTEP team identified as the NFL’s most ‘commercially valuable period’ – penalties against the defense of any Chiefs opponents were disproportionately more likely to result in first downs, more yardage and fall into categories such as defensive pass interference and roughing the passer.The team also noted that these biases were absent in the New England Patriots dynasty with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at the helm, as well as other Super Bowl contenders from the past decade.As such, the premise is that this phenomenon is unique to the Chiefs since their emergence as the NFL’s modern dynasty led by Andy Reid with Mahomes, Chris Jones and Travis Kelce leading the roster star power.Barnes, the lead author of the study, believes that this finding in particular may be as a result of the financial constraints on the NFL themselves during 2015-17 seasons when there was a significant decline in television viewership amid political tension in the US.This empirical evidence – the first of its kind – also offers further implications outside of football and into financial markets and corporate governance etc.Evidence showed that NFL officials were biased in their decisions against any Chiefs opposing defenses, especially in the postseasonGettyThe UTEP research found that these biases were not present throughout the Patriots’ dynastyGetty“This research not only deepens our understanding of sports governance, but also illustrates a larger societal concern: when financial pressure weighs heavily, impartiality can erode,” John Hadjimarcou, Ph.D., dean of UTEP’s Woody L. Hunt College of Business said.Fans have been theorizing this for agesWith the findings of this newly published study being revealed, it has given many football fans a further reason to believe the conspiracy theory that has raged for years, claiming the Chiefs are being favored by the refs.For the majority of the 2024 regular season, Kansas City was simply viewed as the ‘luckiest team in NFL history,’ after Reid’s men kept winning games by one-score margins, some of which happened under some bizarre circumstances. Once the postseason got underway, even some of the Chiefs’ opposition weighed in on those theories. After the Houston Texans fell 23-14 to the Chiefs in the Divisional Round, then-Texans running back Joe Mixon took aim at NFL officials.“Everybody knows how it is, playing up here,” Mixon said. “You can’t — you can never leave it into the refs’ hands. The referees are thought to be subtly influenced by economic factors as it pertains to the Chiefs’ and their marketability in this climateGettyEarlier in 2025, commissioner Roger Goodell was forced to address the theories of the NFL doing whatever they can to benefit the ChiefsGetty“The whole world sees, man, what it is. It is what it is. When it comes down to it, you can’t never leave it into the refs’ hands.”Cries of the NFL being ‘scripted’ and ‘rigged’ raged on as Mahomes and co reached their fifth Super Bowl in six seasons, though they fell to Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles on that occasion.But NFL commissioner Roger Goodell fired back when question about the Chiefs being favored: “That’s a ridiculous theory — for anyone who might take it seriously.“This sort of reminds me a little bit of the script, that I write a script and I have the script for the season.”The Chiefs may be the NFL’s latest dynasty, but fans’ claims given legitimacy by the study, the league may never be able to beat the allegations that a winning KC are likely to feel the benefit.Stay up to date with the latest from the NFL across all platforms – follow our dedicated talkSPORT USA Facebook page and subscribe to our talkSPORT USA YouTube channel for all the offseason news, interviews and more.