For the second Sunday in a row, Raj Thackeray, accompanied this time by his mother, drove into his cousin Uddhav Thackeray’s home “Matoshree” in Mumbai, bolstering speculation that the alliance between their parties for the civic polls could finally be taking shape.The visit comes at a time when the Shiv Sena (UBT), Uddhav’s party, has made a series of statements about a deal with Raj’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) being close. A day after the meeting between the two leaders last week, Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut had told reporters that the nature of the meeting was “political in nature” and the two parties were at an advanced stage of discussions.AdvertisementFor the Sena (UBT), having the MNS on board is crucial for the elections to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), where the undivided Sena first came to power in 1997 along with the BJP. A ward-wise breakup of the November 2024 Assembly elections, collated and analysed by The Indian Express, shows that in 67 of the 227 wards in the city, or 30 per cent, the MNS polled more votes than the winning margin. While the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), the Opposition alliance which the Sena (UBT) is a part of, led in 39 of these wards, the BJP-led Mahayuti ruling coalition was ahead in 28. If the Sena (UBT) manages to ally with the MNS, it can not only consolidate its position in the 39 wards but also flip the wards where the Mahayuti was ahead.Also Read | ‘Fadnavis did what Bal Thackeray couldn’t’: In show of unity, Raj, Uddhav slam BJP, invoke Marathi prideA closer look at the geography of these wards shows that MNS’s strength lies in the Marathi belt stretching across Worli, Dadar, Mahim, Ghatkopar, Vikhroli, and Dindoshi–Malad, where its candidates consistently polled between one-third to half of the votes secured by the MVA candidates.A deeper analysis of the data reveals that the MNS:AdvertisementPolled more than the winning margin in 67 wardsCame close to the winning margin in 10 wardsSecured more than 50% of the MVA’s votes in 25 wardsPolled 30–49% of MVA’s votes in 37 wardsOutpolled the MVA entirely in 8 wards in the north-central and eastern suburbs of the city, such as Worli, Mahim, Bhandup, Jogeshwari, and Vikhroli, where the MNS’s Marathi-speaking loyalist pockets remain active despite a weakened organisation.When the overlaps are removed, the MNS is seen to have influenced 123 wards. This reveals its influence across Mumbai’s political geography despite a small vote share (4% from 25 seats in the 2024 Assembly polls). For Uddhav, this arithmetic directly translates into strategy in an election where even a few hundred votes can decide a ward (the MNS is not that big a factor in Assembly and Lok Sabha polls). Given that their bases overlap, a tie-up with the MNS can ensure a transfer of votes, leading to a consolidation of the fragmented Marathi electorate that oscillates between nostalgia for the undivided Sena and the more hardline Hindutva appeal of Raj Thackeray.In Dindoshi, the MNS polled more than the winning margin in six out of seven wards. In ward 43 (Dindoshi), the MVA candidate led the BJP-Shinde Sena candidate by just 1,088 votes, while the MNS candidate secured 1,728 votes.Raj and Uddhav Thackeray reunite | The long history of language agitation in MaharashtraSimilarly, in Vikhroli (Ward 121), the margin between the MVA and the Mahayuti was 843 votes, while the MNS polled 1,096 votes. In Jogeshwari East (Ward 57), the Mahayuti won by 482 votes, while MNS secured 918, and in Bandra East (Ward 92), the margin was 623 votes while the MNS polled 1,004 votes.An estimate, according to MVA and Mahayuti insiders, is that though the MNS is seen as a bit player in the small-margin battle for the BMC, it could decide the outcome in at least 90 wards. “That’s why Uddhav Thackeray wants Raj on his side, to ensure those Marathi-Hindutva and Thackeray loyalists’ votes don’t split again and remain with them to get hold of BMC again,” said a leader.most readWith Raj Thackeray on his side, Uddhav could well retain and strengthen his existing strongholds to ensure the low-margin wards do not shift towards the Mahayuti and that he can mount a challenge to regain the wards where the Mahayuti led only because the MNS votes tilted the balance.The MNS factor* Seats in Mumbai contested in 2024 Assembly polls: 25* Vote share: 4%* Mumbai total wards: 227* Where MNS polled more than the winning margin: 67 wards* MVA lead: 39 of these wards* Mahayuti lead: 28 wards* Secured more than 50% of MVA’s votes: 25 wards* Polled more than MVA: 8 wards