As Mumbai readies for the first Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation election in over eight years—likely to be held in January 2026—the ward-wise data from last year’s Assembly polls shows how evenly balanced the city’s politics has become. While the ruling Mahayuti alliance of BJP–Shiv Sena-NCP does hold an edge, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) led by Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena UBT still commands the island city and central Mumbai.But what may eventually decide the outcome is the thin margins and the vote of smaller players like the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), which appears to have quietly influenced dozens of wards in the last Assembly polls.The data, sourced, collated and analysed by The Indian Express, shows that the Mahayuti was ahead in 133 of Mumbai’s 227 municipal wards, while the MVA was ahead in 94. However, the margins are strikingly small — 32 wards were decided by less than 1,000 votes, and another 55 by under 2,000 votes. That means in nearly two-thirds of the city, even a small shift in votes could change the outcome of the BMC elections.“This time, it will not be a wave election. It will be decided by margins and local issues like potholes, garbage, redevelopment and water supply,” said a political analyst.Across Mumbai, 87 of 227 wards were decided by less than 3,000 votes — 47 in favour of the MVA and 40 for the Mahayuti.In Mahim, the MVA led by just 44 votes; in Bhandup West by 71 votes; and in Dindoshi, the Mahayuti won by only two votes.Such razor-thin margins show that even a small shift in turnout or a change in candidate could flip results in dozens of wards.Political strategists say this will make booth-level management and local alliances the deciding factors in 2026.The city–suburb divide The data underlines Mumbai’s sharp city in the suburbs. As per the Assembly voting pattern, the wards in suburbs—from Borivali to Mulund—went largely with the Mahayuti, which was ahead in over 70 of the 90 wards in these areas, thanks to a strong BJP–Shinde Sena presence. By contrast, MVA retained the stronghold in the island city, including Worli, Dadar, Byculla and Mumbadevi and the Opposition alliance was ahead in 40 of 60 wards with support from Marathi-speaking and minority voters.The central belt—Sion, Kurla and Chembur—is a mix zone, with redevelopment and changing demography making it a close fight.“This is not just geography, it’s Mumbai’s sociology,” said a senior observer. “The suburbs are dominated by middle-class Marathi, Gujarati and North Indian voters who lean towards the Mahayuti, while the island city’s Marathi working class and minorities back the MVA.”Story continues below this adMNS: Thriving on margins Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), with just about 3.9 lakh votes (nearly 4% vote share) in the 2024 Assembly polls in Mumbai, could play a decisive role in nearly 70 wards across the city as it polled more votes than the winning margin in 67 wards and came close to that margin in 10 other seats. In 25 wards, it secured more than half the votes of the MVA’s tally and in 37 wards between 30 and 49 per cent. In another eight wards, it even outpolled the MVA.Taken together, the MNS influenced the outcome in nearly 123 wards—over half of Mumbai — either by matching the MVA’s base or exceeding the victory margins.This overlapping influence explains why Uddhav Thackeray has been reaching out to his cousin Raj Thackeray ahead of the civic polls.In recent months, the two Thackeray cousins have met multiple times—at Matoshree, Shivtirth and during Ganesh Chaturthi celebrations—signalling a thaw after nearly two decades of estrangement. According to sources, Uddhav Thackeray wants Raj on board to ensure that the Marathi–Hindutva vote, traditionally loyal to the Thackeray brand, does not split again and indirectly benefit the Mahayuti.“The MNS’s four per cent vote share may look small, but it can swing results in at least 70 wards,” said a political observer. “With Raj on his side, Uddhav can consolidate Marathi votes and regain the wards that slipped away due to division in 2024,” he said.The MNS has its strongest base in Dadar, Mahim, Sion, Vikhroli, Kurla and parts of Andheri — all key Marathi belts that overlap with the Sena’s old bastions.Story continues below this adIn several high-profile contests such as Mahim, Worli and Bandra East, MNS candidates polled more than the winning margin, indirectly helping the rival alliance. For instance, in Worli, Aaditya Thackeray (Sena UBT) led by 1,342 votes, while the MNS candidate polled 1,997 votes—enough to have changed the result.Besides the MNS, the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) and AIMIM together polled nearly 8 lakh votes, or 15 per cent of the city’s total.Their influence is concentrated—the VBA in Kurla, Bhandup and Chembur, and the AIMIM in Byculla, Nagpada and Dharavi.In at least 20 wards, their combined votes exceeded the victory margin, meaning tactical alliances or small vote shifts could flip those wards in 2026.The big picture While a total of 32 wards saw margins between the two allies under 1,000 votes, another 55 had margins between 1,000 and 3,000 votes. So, around 14 per cent of the seats are clear swing seats as the margin between the two allies was under 1,000.The 2026 civic polls will be the first major face-off between the two Sena factions since the 2022 split, and a test of which whether Thackeray truly commands Mumbai’s Marathi heartland.As one political observer summed it up, “Margins will decide Mumbai’s BMC. If Uddhav brings Raj on board, it may turn into a fight of arithmetic versus chemistry—numbers versus emotion—and that could change everything.”