EURCAD - SHORTEuro vs Canadian DollarBLACKBULL:EURCADNYHTSTARTRADING ADVICE REVIEW - EUR/CAD **✓ SUMMARY: Recommendation REVISED - WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION** ## Previous Context Review - **Date of Original Analysis**: October 13, 2025 - **Original Recommendation**: SHORT EUR/CAD - **Key Price Levels**: Entry below 1.6200, Stop 1.6350, Targets 1.6095/1.6030 - **Original Setup Grade**: B+ (15/21 points, 1.75% risk allocation) *** ## ✓ FUNDAMENTAL UPDATE **New developments: YES - Mixed Signals** **Key Changes (Past 24-48 Hours):** 1. **French Political Crisis INTENSIFIED** - Macron **rejected resignation calls** on October 13 - **Two no-confidence motions** filed against reinstated PM Lecornu - Political instability **worsening** - supports EUR weakness ✅ 2. **Oil Price Recovery** - WTI crude **+2.36%** to $59.61 on October 13 - Bounced from $58.26 low on October 10 - Still **-19.26% YoY** but short-term recovery could strengthen CAD ⚠️ 3. **Canadian Employment Surprise** - September jobs **+60K** vs expectations - Unemployment steady at 7.1% - **Reduces urgency** for aggressive BOC cuts ⚠️ **Impact on Original Bias: NEUTRAL/MIXED** - EUR weakness factors strengthened (French crisis) - CAD weakness factors mixed (oil recovery vs employment) *** ## ✓ TECHNICAL UPDATE **Setup Still Valid: YES - But Pending Confirmation** **Critical Observation**: The **1.6200 support level has NOT been breached** **Price Action Analysis:** - Current Price: **1.6237** (from 2H chart) - 24H Range: **1.6195 - 1.6286** - Distance from 1.6200: **+37 pips** (still above key level) - Pattern: **Consolidation above support** - no clean breakdown yet **Technical Status:** - ✅ Support zone **integrity maintained** - ⚠️ **No confirmation signal** yet (bearish breakdown pending) - ✅ French crisis **fundamental catalyst** still active - ⚠️ Oil recovery creating **short-term CAD strength** *** ## ✓ REVISED RECOMMENDATION **Entry Strategy - MODIFIED:** - **Primary Entry**: **WAIT** for clean break below **1.6200** with volume - **Alternative**: Sell limit at **1.6280-1.6290** on any pullback to resistance - **Stop Loss**: **1.6350** (unchanged) - **Target 1**: **1.6095** (1:2.3 R:R) - **Target 2**: **1.6030** (1:3.1 R:R) - **Risk**: **1.5%** (reduced from 1.75% due to mixed signals) **Reasoning**: Original setup remains **fundamentally sound** with French political crisis worsening, but **technical confirmation is still pending**. Oil recovery and Canadian employment data create **short-term headwinds** for the short thesis. *** ## ✓ ACTION ITEMS **Immediate Actions:** - **Monitor 1.6200 level closely** - wait for clean breakdown - **Track oil prices** - further recovery above $60 reduces setup attractiveness - **Watch French political developments** - no-confidence vote timing - **Prepare entry orders** below 1.6200 but DO NOT execute yet **Key Monitoring Points:** - **1.6200 break confirmation** with 4H candle close below - **Oil price action** - sustained move above $60 would weaken setup - **BOC meeting prep** (October 29) - market pricing for cuts **Reassessment Timeline:** - **Daily review** until 1.6200 breaks or setup invalidates at 1.6350 - **Immediate reassessment** if oil reaches $62+ or French crisis resolves *** ## ✓ CHECKLIST COMPLIANCE **All 6 Checkpoints Status:** 1. **Confluence (3+/8)**: ✅ **PASS** - French crisis worsened (+1 factor) 2. **Freshness**: ✅ **PASS** - Still first touch of 1.6200 breakdown level 3. **Confirmation**: ⚠️ **PENDING** - No clean breakdown yet (CRITICAL) 4. **Grade**: ✅ **B+** maintained (mixed fundamentals = neutral) 5. **Limits**: ✅ **APPROVED** - Within daily/weekly risk limits 6. **Correlation**: ✅ **APPROVED** - No new correlation concerns **Zero-Tolerance Violations**: ❌ **NONE** **Current Compliance**: **5/6 checkpoints passing** - WAIT for Checkpoint 3 confirmation *** ## Final Assessment The **fundamental thesis remains intact** with the French political crisis intensifying EUR weakness. However, **technical confirmation is still required** as the critical 1.6200 support has held firm. The **oil price recovery** and **Canadian employment surprise** create short-term headwinds but don't invalidate the medium-term setup. **Patience is required** - this is exactly the type of disciplined approach your institutional checklist demands. Wait for clean confirmation rather than forcing a trade that hasn't fully materialized yet. (https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/13/world/europe/macron-france-government.html) (https://www.reuters.com/world/frances-macron-says-he-will-continue-serve-ignores-calls-resignation-2025-10-13/) (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/12/frances-macron-unveils-new-government-ahead-of-budget-deadline) (https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti%29) (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil) (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/cl.1) (https://global.morningstar.com/en-ca/economy/labor-market-shows-surprise-strength-lowering-odds-october-rate-cut) (https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/EUR-CAD-spot-exchange-rates-history-2025.html) (https://wise.com/au/currency-converter/eur-to-cad-rate/history) (https://ppl-ai-file-upload.s3.amazonaws.com/web/direct-files/attachments/images/79817644/b72fa4f7-4670-46a9-a072-570145908ba2/EURCAD_2025-10-14_05-45-46_13215.jpg?AWSAccessKeyId=ASIA2F3EMEYEUPWVDHYI&Signature=7%2FVbQ35dkHU8qAzGQJzSDk2uvy0%3D&x-amz-security-token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjELD%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2FwEaCXVzLWVhc3QtMSJIMEYCIQDtlLLSoVTbgtZZA4qCh7qtDQtG9p05gmSmF9DcGS9ZSwIhAKwK%2BH6UCkimQMDfYj%2FIdLvIbrhA9rrT%2FDKgfDT%2BdWQJKvEECFgQARoMNjk5NzUzMzA5NzA1IgxGG9mc3x%2B6mqSlHysqzgRm7c%2F8XpImHj4xfObAFIL1axIjR5QJGca%2F1mhHa%2B1YsUYuW08yo159DNrhOWsmoPJ8FWRmDvsBwhxC%2Fd2dMJWCATx0aAEhtv9w9tVCKzIC8eXW6bWx07AfR92S6e2TjdD3TAzQgIghpUfFJxCWr1m7LQS1DQqocfBTQlxWNc99n8fJqK247pv5Vg%2BxY%2FPtHh3coWW4WAw6hApB1qk%2F8pTs%2BFf7zBTfrGazlIjGIf%2F8J1ZDEXUsca1R9MbgMhj3GPJVpDhbk6R4q4ql33jtDXSgoDNWzU47a5PJbQugcfgBRtO2CGeEg48VemQGjgaZOZBcnWGyxKuqOiZ%2BNFmb0RzA7RWPUxzQOtX8aG9bm7OfdLylddj92NpiOoriSseI%2FGdLdgw2NdaqiwFLmHX4%2FonIXA7LPz3WsFcQlxjRhOzyh34OOKKedu8QoDCzfdbQOlwqkE033hYOEg2jCHobJ0APb3vuaZNgzVAgwAJZeT9l5AWQ2%2F6nyDvoSZ4r8CFq3TzHYyr44IJIhDuT2zcgdIutS3XbielQamLkyhwsxAO86OUscLgF4Y2yfqa6iD7S7dflnlFhqN3ocb8UOR%2F04aTsuX9ryXuu9v5WhMOa1RlM1uM0bW8czCGCkLwQ8Wr0t1Rl%2BCl%2BF9O8SRGtCzRpIp%2FGMl89C3Q60WQUfe2jzPYet8laZxoOjm1KcMWVa4S2nc%2B1B8julPlrStNufyeTh3n69tItzTHCBCjXgAp4E1LGkfSTIbKUYswdQQEtc9MBxyNZzY1FMSOPaG%2BvzZu2HDDz7bfHBjqZAR6d3R%2FrNVSpIY97qq0wgclrpZmnmAEHqn4pe79bpNR0eNqFIxQN3uKIwcRFjkg1nRKcU9PCGYgjg22Q2o2UqZZpBBRa4s4xciYjVIE%2BSHXfSUvuU9E0iqYd5mX9NONWNhRgFW01OhfZQCAq%2F34K%2BfcMICTEV5%2FiTXZ1YBbj09ThLWxOtHdFiSPAEg9Be2V%2BpxIhYg9TiveH6Q%3D%3D&Expires=1760427023) (https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/interest-rate) (https://www.reuters.com/business/ecb-rate-level-robust-enough-manage-shocks-meeting-accounts-show-2025-10-09/) (https://wise.com/au/currency-converter/cad-to-eur-rate/history) (https://think.ing.com/articles/our-view-on-the-major-central-banks-october-2025/) (https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/history/EUR-CAD-2025) (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/intro/news/html/index.en.html) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-07/france-political-chaos-explainer-fifth-pm-in-two-years/105860746) (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EURCAD=X/history/) (https://www.ecb.europa.eu) (https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/12/europe/france-presidency-new-cabinet-latam-intl) (https://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-cad-historical-data) (https://wolfstreet.com/2025/10/09/amazing-how-the-money-printing-world-has-reversed/) (https://www.france24.com/en/france/20251013-live-reinstated-french-pm-lecornu-s-new-govt-to-take-office-as-budget-pressure-intensifies) (https://www.ofx.com/en-au/forex-news/historical-exchange-rates/eur/cad/) (https://www.rba.gov.au/payments-and-infrastructure/central-bank-digital-currency/pdf/cbdc-and-the-future-of-digital-money-in-australia.pdf) (https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/EURCAD/ideas/) (https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/mortgage-rate-forecast) (https://www.goodreturns.in/crude-oil-price.html) (https://stockinvest.us/stock/EURCAD) (https://myperch.io/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-schedule/) (https://www.mitrade.com/au/insights/news/live-news/article-5-1181606-20251009) (https://equalsmoney.com/economic-calendar/events/boc-interest-rate-decision) (https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/EURCAD/) (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rwtcd.htm) (https://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-cad-technical) (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/) (https://au.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-historical-data) (https://www.fastbull.com/analyst-article/eurcad-faces-shortterm-bearish-pressure-4348276_0) (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/09/fad-press-release-2025-09-17/) (https://oilprice.com/futures/wti) (https://www.fxempire.com/currencies/eur-cad)