Out into Right-field she goes!-U.S. Dollar Currency IndexTVC:DXYTravCo⚠️ Market Forewarning: Potential Weakness in the U.S. Dollar (USD) Issued on: October 12, 2025 Prepared by: Disclaimer: The following is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading and investing involve risk. Please consult a licensed financial advisor. Overview: Based on a convergence of technical indicators, macroeconomic factors, and cyclical analysis, we are issuing a forewarning regarding potential near- to mid-term weakness in the U.S. dollar (USD). Recent developments in the global macroeconomic landscape—paired with emerging technical patterns—suggest that the greenback may be entering a corrective or even impulsive decline phase, particularly against major currency pairs such as the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and JPY/USD. 🔍 Technical Analysis Breakdown: 1. Supply and Demand Ray Line Zones The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is currently testing a multi-month supply zone between 108.50 – 109.30, which has historically acted as a reversal region. Demand zones below near 104.00 – 103.20 have weakened after multiple tests, suggesting a likely breakdown and continuation of downward momentum. The ray line trend indicates supply is overtaking demand, as evidenced by fading bullish volume and weaker retracements on rebounds. 2. Elliott Wave Pattern The broader wave structure from the March 2024 low appears to have completed a 5-wave impulsive cycle, peaking around September 2025. Current price action suggests we are in the early stages of an A-B-C corrective wave: Wave A likely concluded in early October with a sharp drop. A shallow Wave B retracement is in progress but struggling to reclaim previous highs. If pattern symmetry holds, Wave C could extend toward the 102.00 – 101.50 zone, in line with Fibonacci projection levels (1.618 extension of Wave A). 3. Pivot Market Points October’s monthly pivot point lies around 105.80, and price is trading consistently below it — a bearish sign. Key support pivots reside at 104.20 (S1) and 102.75 (S2); a breach below these levels could confirm further downside. Resistance at the 107.60 – 108.00 range remains firm and unbroken. 🔮 Forward Outlook: Bearish Bias Given: Sustained rejection from a known supply zone, A likely Elliott Wave correction unfolding, And consistent trading below pivot levels, …we anticipate a bearish trajectory for the USD over the next 1–3 months, barring a major macroeconomic shock or intervention. Target zones: Short-term: 104.20 Mid-term: 102.00 Risk invalidation: Close above 109.50 with strong bullish volume 📉 Key Drivers to Watch: U.S. Federal Reserve commentary and policy shifts Treasury yields and bond market stress Geopolitical developments impacting safe-haven flows Inflation print volatility (CPI/PPI releases)