ETH Trade Plan (December 8, 2025)EthereumCRYPTO:ETHUSDBTC_ETH_Intra_Day_AnalysisNo financial advices / Just a trading diary 💸 Daily Intra-Day Reports powered by an institutional-grade pipeline (SMC + orderflow + derivatives + multi-timeframe confluence). Link: https://t.me/+qEniN092BHBkZGYy ETH Trade Plan (December 8, 2025) (D1 / H4 / H1 / M15) ⬛️ 1. Higher Timeframe Context (D1 and H4) • D1 bias: neutral (bullish reversal attempt) • D1 range (approx): $2,800 – $3,762 • Key D1 zones: • Supply: $3,350–$3,762 (previous breakdown + OB cluster) • Demand: $2,800–$3,050 • H4 bias: buy dips • H4 zones of interest: • H4 Sell Zone 1: – previous rejection cluster (decaying) • H4 Buy Zone 1: – OB + HVN + weekend absorption All active setups are trend-aligned with emerging H4/D1 bullish structure. ⬛️ 2. Preferred Setups by Horizon 🔳 2.1 Swing Setup (D1/H4) • Idea: Long dips into $3,100–$3,150 for retest $3,500+ (post-Fusaka accumulation). • Time horizon: multi-day. 🔲 2.2 Intraday Setup (H1 focus) • Idea: Long reclaim/break $3,150–$3,190 zone. • Time horizon: today / overnight. ▫️ 2.3 Scalp Setup (M15 focus) • Idea: Dip-buy $3,100–$3,110 with absorption or breakout >$3,140. • Time horizon: minutes–hours. ▪️ 2.4 Arbitrage/Pairs Concept • Long ETH/BTC ratio – defending key support, mean-reversion bias up. 🟩 3. Entry Zones and Triggers Main Long Setup (Trend-Aligned) • Execution timeframe: H1 • Trigger timeframe: M15/M5 • Entry zone: • Context: H4 demand + weekend sweep reclaim + institutional spot buying • Pattern tags: Trigger conditions: • Price holds $3,100 bid cluster + M15 bullish structure (higher low + volume delta buy) • CVD positive or diverging bullish • ML-Predictive 15m upside prob ≥0.65 • No aggressive ask walls rebuilding 🔴 4. Stops (Invalidation Levels) Long setups: • Stop: $3,045 (below weekend low + H4 demand) • Logic: Structural failure, CHoCH down confirmed. 🟢 5. Targets Long: • TP1: $3,190 – local supply + FVG fill (H1/H4) • TP2: $3,350 – supply retest + LVN void (H4/D1) • TP3 (swing): $3,600+ – next HVN + extension (D1) ⬛️ 6. Position Sizing • Baseline risk trend-aligned: 1.0% • Adjustments: −0.2× (put skew + weekend tail) +0.1× (strong absorption + news) • Effective risk: 0.9% main long, max 0.4% aggressive scalps ⬛️ 7. Risk Flags • Persistent put skew → vol expansion downside risk • Weekend liquidity memory (potential gap lower Asia) • High OI + neutral funding → crowded long risk if macro flips • Death cross D1 still active (macro timeframe bearish pressure) ⬛️ 8. Flip Conditions Bull → bear flip: H4 close < $3,050 + CVD strongly negative + funding negative. ⬛️ 9. Alternative Scenario Fakeout above $3,190 → sharp rejection (spoofing + gamma) → trap longs → drop to $2,950–$3,000 (next demand + round number). Requires delta selling + macro risk-off trigger. ⬛️ 10. Model Self-Critique • Main assumptions: Fusaka narrative sustains buying, institutional accumulation continues, no macro shock. • Vulnerabilities: put skew buyers re-assert, whale distribution at supply, weekend gap lower, misread absorption. • Do NOT chase extended above $3,200 without volume. Do NOT hold through Asia low liquidity without tight stops. ⬛️ 11. Uncertainty and Constraints Uncertainty: medium Constraints: require M15 confirmation + positive delta, no entries above $3,200, reduce size into NY close if no volume.