Potential Long-term Setup for ORCLOracle CorporationBATS:ORCLRocDiDoORCL may pull back into the $150–$175 zone — a confluence of long-term trend support, a weekly gap, and high-volume profile levels. If earnings disappoint or macro/AI sentiment weakens, a retest of this area is likely before the broader uptrend resumes. If Earnings are strong & Guidance is good, potential upside towards the ~$250 level. Technical Overview: Price has already retraced significantly (~ -40%) from its highs and continues to close prior gaps on the daily and weekly charts. One meaningful gap remains at $152–$154, which aligns with: - The bottom of the long-term upward trend channel - A high-volume node on the YTD Volume Profile - The 50 EMA (monthly) and 200 EMA (weekly)—both historically respected support levels This stacking of structural support levels creates a high-probability demand zone. If price reaches this region, I will look for confirmation such as a bullish reversal pattern on the daily/weekly, RSI divergence, or strong buying pressure. On shorter timeframes, the 5 Year Fibonacci retracement adds another layer to the structure. the 61.8% retracement sits ~ $168, aligning closely with the long-term trendline support and reinforcing the $150-175 demand zone. Fundamental Context ORCL has benefited from AI-driven optimism and continues to guide for strong growth. However, rising debt concerns, elevated CAPEX, and negative FCF in recent quarters introduce short-term risk, especially as ORCL CDS spreads have risen sharply, signaling increased perceived credit risk. Revenue growth remains healthy and EPS has grown meaningfully over the past five years, and operating cash flow remains strong. Analysts maintain bullish long-term expectations (consensus ~ $340), but a near-term pullback is reasonable as investors reassess the ROI of recent investments. The lowest price targets sit around the $175 level. Fair Value Estimates: Intrinsic: ~$380 Relative valuation: ~$320 Historical multiples: ~$120 Blended fair value: ~ $275 This aligns with the top of the YTD Value Area — a reasonable medium-term target if earnings are solid. Profit Targets: On the upside, the 5 Year retracement ~ $278 lines up with the medium fundamental target and matches upper value-area on the YTD Volume Profile. Looking shorter term, the 1 Year Fibonacci retracement ~ $260 coincides with the previous ATH, which creates a clear near-term resistance level. Likewise, the 5 Year chart highlights a retracement level ~ 236 while the daily chart shows a cluster of the 50EMA & 100EMA ~ $237, creating a strong technical resistance in the near term before seeing a shift back towards the upside. - Target 1: $260 - Target 2: $275 - Target 3: $345 Confirmation: - Bullish reversal candle on daily/weekly - RSI bullish divergence - High-volume cluster at the lower trendline - Bounce from weekly gap close Summary ORCL remains a strong long-term name positioned to benefit from AI adoption, but short-term weakness may bring price back into a structurally important support zone. A pullback into $150–$175 offers an attractive risk-reward long setup supported by technical confluence and long-term fundamental upside.