Gold - The Calm Before the StormGoldOANDA:XAUUSDnfydwmGold's hesitant price action is digesting expectations of a hawkish rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a easing of geopolitical tensions. Currently, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, with expectations of a Fed rate cut, a weakening dollar, geopolitical developments, and US economic data collectively dominating short-term gold price movements. The range-bound trading pattern remains unbroken. The core focus of gold trading this week is undoubtedly the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. Investors will closely monitor the latest economic projections (including the "dot plot") and Powell's post-meeting press conference, hoping to glean clear clues about the future path of rate cuts—a signal that will directly influence changes in dollar demand and inject new directional momentum into gold. Before the Fed's decision is announced, gold is likely to fluctuate between $4170 and $4210, with trading volume expected to remain thin. Blindly chasing highs and lows carries significant risk. Traders should pay close attention to the following two points: First, breakout signals at key price levels: If the Fed releases dovish guidance, clarifying the easing path until 2026, gold is expected to break through the $4200 mark, potentially opening up further upside potential. If Powell makes hawkish comments, emphasizing a higher threshold for rate cuts, gold may break below the $4170 support level, triggering short-term stop-loss orders. Second, the linkage between data and policy: Tonight's US labor force data can serve as a supplementary reference. If the data resonates with the Fed's policy tone, it will amplify gold's volatility. Furthermore, sudden changes in geopolitical risks could become black swan events, requiring hedging preparations. Overall, gold is currently in a "waiting for confirmation" trading phase, and the range-bound trading pattern before the Fed's decision is expected to continue. For traders, the safest strategy at present is to maintain a light position and wait for clear policy signals before making any moves, avoiding blindly betting on the direction in a range of intense battle between bulls and bears.