WANTED DEAD OR ALIVE ! BITCOIN Bitcoin / U. S. DollarKRAKEN:BTCUSDCryptollicaBased on the chart you shared and your request for an in-depth analysis, I have evaluated the situation from the perspective of an Expert Technical Analyst and Macroeconomist. Below you will find the technical reading of the chart, its comparison with the 1970s Gold fractal, and the academic/economic grounding for why Bitcoin is "mathematically" bound to appreciate in value. 1. Technical Analysis of the Chart: "Rising Channel and Trend Theme" The TradingView chart you shared (Weekly/Logarithmic) clearly illustrates Bitcoin's long-term secular bull market cycle. Formation and Structure: An "Ascending Broadening Wedge" or an "Ascending Channel" structure is evident in the chart. This structure confirms that while volatility increases over time, the bottoms are consistently rising (Higher Lows). Upper Resistance Line (Arrows): The line connecting the 2017 peak, the 2021 double peak, and the 2024-2025 projection. This area acts as an "overbought" zone where profit-taking occurs every time it is tested. Lower Support Line (Numbers 1-2-3): This line is the backbone of the bull market. Point 1 (2023): Bear market reversal and trend initiation. Point 2 (Early 2024): Intermediate correction and confirmation. Point 3 (Current): The region where the price is currently located. The chart indicates that the price is touching the channel support (trendline) and a purely technical upward reaction (green arrow) is expected from here. Technical Deduction: In technical analysis literature, the trend is your friend. As long as the price holds at zone number 3, the technical target is the upper band of the channel, ranging between $140,000 - $180,000. However, if this support breaks, the formation is invalidated, and a deeper correction (bear trap or trend change) would be expected. 2. Historical Similarity: Gold (1970-1980) vs. Bitcoin There are striking academic and structural similarities between Bitcoin's current structure and Gold's movement during the "Great Inflation Era" of 1970-1980. The 1970s Gold Scenario: 1971 Nixon Shock: The US ended the convertibility of the dollar into gold (End of Bretton Woods). This initiated the era of fiat (unbacked) currency. First Rally (1971-1974): Gold rose from $35 to $190 (~5x increase). The Great Correction (1974-1976): Gold lost nearly 50% of its value, falling back to $100. (Investors claimed the "Gold bubble had burst"). Parabolic Rally (1976-1980): Gold went from $100 to $850, marking an ~8.5x increase. Comparison with Bitcoin: Regions 2 and 3 on your chart strongly resemble that painful "shakeout" period of Gold in 1976. At that time, Gold was being repriced as a "store of value" against high inflation and negative real interest rates. Bitcoin is currently in the institutional acceptance phase (ETFs) as "Digital Gold." If the 1970s fractal plays out; the current consolidation (sideways/downward process) is the final major stop before the "Parabolic Mania" phase. 3. Economic and Academic Basis: Why "Must" Bitcoin Rise? This part of your question moves beyond technical analysis into Monetary Economics. Bitcoin gaining value against the dollar stems not just from Bitcoin's "miracle," but from the mathematical weakness of the Dollar (and other fiat currencies). We can explain this using three academic concepts: A. The Denominator Effect and M2 Money Supply The price of an asset is measured as Asset / Currency (BTC/USD). If the denominator (USD) constantly expands, the price rises even if the numerator (BTC) remains constant. As Milton Friedman stated: "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." Central banks (Fed) are forced to continuously print money (Quantitative Easing) to manage debt crises. An asset that is printed without limit (Dollar) is doomed to lose value against an asset with mathematically locked limits (21 Million Bitcoin). Gold: Compared to the existing stock of gold on earth, the amount of new gold mined annually is low (High S2F ratio). This makes it valuable. Bitcoin: Thanks to the halving mechanism, Bitcoin's inflation rate (new supply) is cut in half every 4 years. Bitcoin is the only asset whose supply is perfectly inelastic (supply cannot be increased even if the price rises). If the price of gold goes up 10x, miners dig more and increase the supply. If Bitcoin goes up 100x, the number of Bitcoins produced is fixed by the algorithm. Economically, this is "Absolute Scarcity." C. Gresham's Law and Thiers' Law Gresham's Law: "Bad money drives out good." People spend the depreciating currency (Dollar/Fiat) and hoard the valuable one (Gold/BTC). Thiers' Law: The inverse of Gresham's law; when a market collapses or during hyperinflation, "Good money drives out bad." People refuse to accept fiat currency and demand only "hard assets." Bitcoin's long-term rise represents the global economy's painful transition from a fiat money system (arbitrarily printed paper) to a mathematics-based monetary system. Conclusion and Summary Point number 3 on your chart is a critical decision moment from both a technical and macroeconomic standpoint. Technically: We are at the support of the long-term rising channel. In terms of risk/reward, this is a "buy" zone. Historically: It resembles the "calm before the storm" period of Gold in 1976. Economically: As long as global debt ratios and the necessity of money printing (Debasement) continue, Bitcoin gaining value against fiat currencies is not speculation, but a macroeconomic necessity. ------------------------------------------------------ 1. Technical Analysis of the Chart: "Rising Channel and Trend Theme"The TradingView chart you shared (Weekly/Logarithmic) clearly illustrates Bitcoin's long-term secular bull market cycle.Formation and Structure:An "Ascending Broadening Wedge" or an "Ascending Channel" structure is evident in the chart. This structure confirms that while volatility increases over time, the bottoms are consistently rising (Higher Lows).Upper Resistance Line (Arrows): The line connecting the 2017 peak, the 2021 double peak, and the 2024-2025 projection. This area acts as an "overbought" zone where profit-taking occurs every time it is tested.Lower Support Line (Numbers 1-2-3): This line is the backbone of the bull market.Point 1 (2023): Bear market reversal and trend initiation.Point 2 (Early 2024): Intermediate correction and confirmation. Point 3 (Current): The region where the price is currently located. The chart indicates that the price is touching the channel support (trendline) and a purely technical upward reaction (green arrow) is expected from here.Technical Deduction:In technical analysis literature, the trend is your friend. As long as the price holds at zone number 3, the technical target is the upper band of the channel, ranging between $140,000 - $180,000. However, if this support breaks, the formation is invalidated, and a deeper correction would be expected. 2. Historical Similarity: Gold (1970-1980) vs. BitcoinThere are striking academic and structural similarities between Bitcoin's current structure and Gold's movement during the "Great Inflation Era" of 1970-1980.The 1970s Gold Scenario:1971 Nixon Shock: The US ended the convertibility of the dollar into gold. This initiated the era of fiat (unbacked) currency.First Rally (1971-1974): Gold rose from $35 to $190 (~5x increase). The Great Correction (1974-1976): Gold lost nearly 50% of its value, falling back to $100. (Investors claimed the "Gold bubble had burst").Parabolic Rally (1976-1980): Gold went from $100 to $850, marking an ~8.5x increase.Comparison with Bitcoin:Regions 2 and 3 on your chart strongly resemble that painful "shakeout" period of Gold in 1976.At that time, Gold was being repriced as a "store of value" against high inflation.Bitcoin is currently in the institutional acceptance phase (ETFs) as "Digital Gold."If the 1970s fractal plays out; the current consolidation is the final major stop before the "Parabolic Mania" phase. 3. Economic and Academic Basis: Why "Must" Bitcoin Rise?This part of your question moves beyond technical analysis into Monetary Economics and Network Theory. Bitcoin gaining value against the dollar stems not just from speculation, but from mathematical laws.We can explain this using three academic concepts: A. The Denominator Effect and M2 Money SupplyThe price of an asset is measured as Asset / Currency (BTC/USD).If the denominator (USD) constantly expands due to monetary debasement, the price rises even if the numerator (BTC) remains constant.As Milton Friedman stated: "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon."Central banks are forced to print money to manage global debt. An asset printed without limit (Dollar) is mathematically bound to lose value against a finite asset. B. The Bitcoin Power Law TheoryUnlike the Stock-to-Flow model (which relies on supply shocks), the Power Law model relies on Time and Network Growth.Scale Invariance: Much like the growth of cities, biological organisms, or planetary systems, Bitcoin's adoption follows a Power Law ($Price \propto Time^n$).The Predictable Corridor: When you plot Bitcoin’s price against time on a log-log scale, it forms a straight line. This indicates that price appreciation is not random but follows a physics-like trajectory of network adoption (Metcalfe’s Law).The "Fair Value" Floor: The Power Law mathematically establishes a rising "floor" price that Bitcoin has historically never breached for long. As time passes, the fair value must increase simply because the network is growing. According to Power Law regression bands, the price at Point 3 is likely hugging the lower bound (the "buy" zone), suggesting the asset is mathematically undervalued relative to its time-based adoption curve. C. Gresham's Law and Thiers' LawGresham's Law: "Bad money drives out good." People spend the depreciating currency (Fiat) and hoard the valuable one (Bitcoin).Thiers' Law: When a fiat system becomes unstable, "Good money drives out bad." People refuse to accept paper money and demand hard assets.Bitcoin's rise is the market's natural selection of a superior monetary technology. Conclusion and Summary Point number 3 on your chart is a critical decision moment: Technically: We are at the support of the long-term rising channel. Historically: It resembles the 1976 Gold "shakeout" before the parabolic run.Mathematically: According to the Power Law, the asset is likely resting on its adoption trendline floor, making the upward movement a function of time and network physics rather than just market sentiment.