DAVID E. SANGER2025年12月9日特朗普总统将于明年4月在北京与中国国家领导人习近平举行会晤。 Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesThe last time President Trump issued a national security strategy, eight years ago, it heralded a return to superpower competition, describing China and Russia as “revisionist” powers seeking to upend American dominance around the world.八年前，特朗普总统上一次发布国家安全战略时，宣告了超级大国竞争的回归，将中国和俄罗斯定义为试图颠覆美国全球主导地位的“修正主义”强权。“China and Russia challenge American power, influence and interests, attempting to erode American security and prosperity,” he wrote in a document that reflected the influence of his advisers in his first term. “They are determined to make economies less free and less fair, to grow their militaries, and to control information and data to repress their societies and expand their influence.”“中俄挑战着美国的权力、影响力与利益，企图削弱美国的安全与繁荣，”他在那份受其第一届政府顾问团队影响的文件中写道。“它们执意要让经济变得更不自由、更不公平，它们扩张本国军力，控制信息与数据以压制本国社会并扩大影响力。”Eight years later, that diagnosis seems truer than ever. The two U.S. rivals have deepened, and occasionally exaggerated, their “partnership without limits.” China’s nuclear force has more than doubled since the 2017 strategy was published; its military runs exercises encircling Taiwan; and its cyber attackers have drilled into American telecommunications, corporate and government infrastructure.八年过去了，这一判断似乎比以往任何时候都更加贴切。美国的这两大竞争对手深化了“无上限伙伴关系”，有时甚至夸大这种关系。自2017年前述战略发布以来，中国的核力量已增长了一倍多；它的军队环绕台湾展开军事演习；它的网络攻击者已渗透进美国的电信、企业和政府基础设施。Russia has engaged in a nearly four-year-long war in Ukraine and a shadow war against U.S. allies across Europe.俄罗斯则在乌克兰打了一场持续近四年的战争，并在整个欧洲对美国盟友发动了一场影子战争。本月，乌克兰第148炮兵旅向乌克兰东部的俄军目标开火。Yet a reader of Mr. Trump’s 2025 strategy would barely know any of that. While the headlines have focused on how European allies must end mass migration and elect “patriotic” parties or face “civilizational erasure,” what is most striking about the 33-page document is what it ignores.然而，阅读特朗普2025年战略的读者几乎察觉不到这些。尽管媒体焦点集中在欧洲盟友必须终止大规模移民、选举“爱国”政党，否则将面临“文明湮灭”的论述上，这份33页文件最引人注目之处在于其刻意忽略的内容。Russia is mentioned in only four paragraphs, and never in tones of condemnation for its invasion of a neighboring state, leading to a war that has produced more than 1.5 million casualties. Instead, it portrays the United States as something of a neutral negotiator that can diminish tensions between Russia and Europe and “reestablish strategic stability” with Moscow.全文仅在四个段落中提到俄罗斯，而且始终未谴责它入侵邻国、发动导致超过150万人伤亡的战争。相反，文件将美国描绘成能够缓和俄欧紧张关系、与莫斯科“重建战略稳定”的中立调停者。And there is virtually no discussion of the daily battle in cyberspace against China’s state-sponsored hackers, after the administration warned last week of another deep penetration of American corporate and government computer networks.而关于网络空间每日对抗中国国家支持的黑客活动，这份战略几乎未作讨论——尽管特朗普政府上周刚就美国企业与政府计算机网络再次遭深度渗透发出警告。But those are hardly the only direct threats to the United States that seem odd by their omission.但被这份战略反常地忽略的威胁不仅仅是这些。In 2017, Mr. Trump was threatening “fire and fury” against North Korea, which at the time had one to two dozen nuclear weapons. The 2017 strategy notes that the country “seeks the capability to kill millions of Americans with nuclear weapons,” and delves into its chemical, biological and cyber capability. Today, after years of failed diplomacy, North Korea has 60 or more nuclear weapons.2017年，特朗普曾对当时拥有一二十枚核武器的朝鲜发出“火与怒”的威胁。2017年的战略文件指出，该国“寻求具备用核武器杀死数百万美国人的能力”，并详细论述了其化学、生物及网络能力。如今，在多年外交失败之后，朝鲜已拥有60枚或更多核武器。Yet the country is never mentioned in the new strategy. Iran is barely mentioned, and then in contradictory terms. Mr. Trump’s introduction boasts that in June, “we obliterated Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity.” Then, on the report’s penultimate page, a more careful assessment says that the United States “significantly degraded Iran’s nuclear program.”但在这份新战略中，却完全没有提到朝鲜。伊朗也仅略微提及，而且表述还自相矛盾。特朗普在序言部分夸口称，在6月，“我们摧毁了伊朗的核浓缩能力”。然而，在文件倒数第二页，一段更为谨慎的评估却表示，美国“严重削弱了伊朗的核计划”。“The document is silent on how the administration is going to prevent Iran from reconstituting its degraded program,” Scott D. Sagan, a Stanford University professor who writes extensively on nuclear strategy, noted on Saturday.长期研究核战略的斯坦福大学教授斯科特·萨根在上周六指出，“文件未说明美国政府将如何阻止伊朗重建遭到削弱的核计划。”No strategy can deal with every threat posed to the United States, of course, and those that try to often read more like a laundry list of challenges. The new report says in its opening paragraphs that it is focused on just a few major national security threats, and that the goal is “to ensure that America remains the world’s strongest, richest, most powerful and most successful country for decades to come.”当然，没有任何一份战略文件能够涵盖美国面临的所有威胁，那些试图面面俱到的文本，往往读起来更像是一份挑战清单。这份新文件在开篇几段中表示，它只聚焦少数几项主要国家安全威胁，其目标是“确保美国在未来几十年里仍然是世界上最强大、最富有、最具影响力、最成功的国家”。“Not every country, region, issue or cause — however worthy — can be the focus of American strategy,” the document says. It then goes on to put the first priority on the Western Hemisphere. Most of that involves updating the Monroe Doctrine — which declared the Americas and their surrounding waters as Washington’s sphere of dominance — with a “Trump corollary.” Not surprisingly, it focuses on limiting migration and drugs.“并非每个国家、地区、议题或事业——无论多么有价值——都能成为美国战略的焦点，”文件写道。随后，它将西半球列为第一优先事项。其中很大一部分内容是在以一种“特朗普推论”的方式对《门罗宣言》加以更新——该宣言曾将美洲大陆及其周边水域界定为华盛顿的势力范围。不出所料，其重点放在了限制移民和毒品问题上。Still, the move away from discussion of the immediate and long-lasting competition among the world’s two largest economies and three largest nuclear powers is jarring.然而，这份文件避而不谈全球两大经济体和三大核强国之间迫在眉睫且影响深远的竞争，这一转变令人震惊。There is no discussion of superpower struggle or strategies of containment. The document argues for a quick end to the Ukraine war, on terms that would preserve a Ukrainian state, as a way of achieving that ill-defined “strategic stability” with the United States. And even though more pages of the document are focused on China than on any other nation, it dwells far more on the commercial relations than the strategic competition.文件没有讨论超级大国斗争或遏制战略。它主张按照保留乌克兰国家地位的条件迅速结束乌克兰战争，从而与美国实现一种没有清晰定义的“战略稳定”。尽管文件中涉及中国的篇幅超过任何其他国家，但其着墨点更多放在商业关系上，而非战略竞争。9月，在北京天安门广场举行的阅兵式上，新型东风-5C战略核导弹首次亮相。China’s nuclear expansion, which has fixated the Pentagon and strategic planners for years, gets only glancing mention, and there is barely a mention of the remarkably sophisticated, extensive cyber attacks that have burrowed deeply into American telecommunications and utility systems and stayed there, despite years of efforts to oust them.多年来一直令五角大楼和战略规划者高度关注的中国核能力扩张在文件中仅被一笔带过；对于那些已深度渗透美国电信和公用事业系统、虽经多年努力仍无法根除的高度复杂且规模庞大的网络攻击，文件更是几乎未置一词。“The section on Asia is striking,” said Peter D. Feaver, a professor at Duke University who runs its American Grand Strategy program. “When discussing economic competition, China is mentioned explicitly and in granular detail. But when discussing military threats in the Indo-Pacific, the language becomes very vague.”杜克大学美国大战略项目主任彼得·费弗教授指出：“关于亚洲的部分引人注目。讨论经济竞争时，中国被明确提及且细节详尽；但论及印太地区军事威胁时，措辞却变得非常模糊。”He added: “Unlike Trump’s first security strategy, China is not identified by name as a country that poses a military threat, which may be the loudest omission in the entire document.”他补充道："与特朗普首份安全战略不同，这一次中国并未被直接点名为构成军事威胁的国家，这可能是整份文件最引人深思的缺略。”Yet it is not the only arena in which the competition with China is soft-pedaled, at least in comparison to Mr. Trump’s first strategy and the one that followed from the Biden administration.然而，这并非唯一一个美中竞争问题上被刻意淡化的领域，至少与特朗普首份战略以及随后拜登政府的战略相比是如此。“Think about the list of challenges where China presents the greatest threat to the U.S. in the next few decades,” said R. Nicholas Burns, who served as ambassador to China until January and, as a career foreign service officer, ambassador to NATO. “It’s who will emerge most powerful in technology — A.I., quantum computing, biotechnology, cyber. They are linked to the intense military competition we have with China every day throughout the Indo-Pacific.”“想一想未来几十年里中国对美国构成最大威胁的挑战清单，”今年1月卸任美国驻华大使、曾任驻北约大使的资深外交官尼古拉斯·伯恩斯表示。“其实就是谁将在人工智能、量子计算、生物技术、网络安全等技术领域占据主导地位。这些领域与我们在印太地区每日同中国进行的激烈军事竞争密切相关。”They are mentioned only in passing, Mr. Burns noted. “Nor is there mention of the fact that the E.U. and NATO countries have been critical partners with us in sanctioning Beijing for its support for Russia in Ukraine, on Taiwan and on human rights — on our side of the strategic competition,” he added. “In fact, strangely and falsely, there is more condemnation in the report of our European allies than our adversaries China and Russia.”伯恩斯指出，这些问题在文件中只是一笔带过。“文件中也没有提到一个事实，即欧盟和北约国家一直是我们在多个议题上的关键伙伴——包括因北京在乌克兰问题上支持俄罗斯、在台湾问题以及在人权问题上的立场而对其实施制裁，在战略竞争中它们是站在我们这一边的，”他补充道。“事实上，令人费解且荒谬的是，文件中对我们欧洲盟友的谴责反而多于对我们的对手中国和俄罗斯的谴责。”In fact, Russia is not condemned for its invasion of Ukraine, or the evidence that Mr. Putin was considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons inside the country, most dramatically during a crisis in October 2022.事实上，文件也没有谴责俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵，也没有提及有关普京考虑在乌克兰境内使用战术核武器的证据——最引人注目的一次发生在2022年10月的一场危机期间。While the last major nuclear arms control treaty with Russia, New START, expires in two months, there is no discussion of avoiding a renewed, expensive and destabilizing arms race. Instead, the strategy extols missile defenses, “including a Golden Dome for the American homeland,” a project Mr. Trump announced within months of taking office.虽然与俄罗斯的最后一项重要核军控条约《新削减战略武器条约》将于两个月后到期，但文件并未讨论如何避免一场代价高昂、破坏稳定的新军备竞赛。相反，战略文件大谈导弹防御体系，包括为美国本土打造“金钟罩”的计划——这是特朗普上任数月后宣布的项目。But while billions of dollars are being spent on the project already, there is no mention in the strategy of the fact that one of its key elements — placing missile interceptors in space — could prompt a race among the superpowers to place nuclear weapons into orbit as well.然而，尽管该项目已经投入了数十亿美元，战略文件中却没有提及这样一个事实：其关键组成部分之一——在太空部署导弹拦截系统——可能会促使超级大国之间展开一场将核武器送入轨道的竞赛。It is unclear why the administration turned sharply away from the discussion of superpower competition that it began in 2017. Partly it may be personalities. The national security adviser who oversaw the drafting of the 2017 document, Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, believed the American defense establishment was moving far too slowly in confronting new realities after nearly two decades of focus on counterterrorism.目前尚不清楚本届政府为何会突然背离其在2017年启动的关于超级大国竞争的讨论。这在一定程度上可能与人事变动有关。曾主导2017年文件起草工作的国家安全顾问、陆军中将H·R·麦克马斯特认为，在专注反恐近20年后，美国的防务体系在应对新的现实方面行动过于迟缓。He succeeded, and one of the few areas of bipartisan agreement in Congress has been the need to counter China’s rising military and technological power, and Russia’s renewed threats to Europe. But the worldview of the key authors of the 2025 document is significantly different. The approach to the Western Hemisphere echoes the public comments of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is also the acting national security adviser.他曾成功地推动了转变，国会两党为数不多的共识之一就是需要遏制中国日益增长的军事和科技实力，以及俄罗斯对欧洲重新构成威胁。但2025年文件主要起草者的世界观已大不相同：对西半球的态度呼应了国务卿、代国家安全顾问马可·鲁比奥的公开说法。The discussion of Europe and “civilizational extinction” seems drawn from the speech Vice President JD Vance delivered at the Munich Security Conference in February.关于欧洲与“文明湮灭”的论述似乎源自副总统JD·万斯今年2月在慕尼黑安全会议上的演讲。But the caution about China appears to have come from the Treasury, and from Mr. Trump himself, who has said he is looking forward to visiting Beijing in April to strike even larger trade deals.而对中国的审慎态度似乎源自财政部以及特朗普本人，他曾表示，期待4月访华以达成更大规模的贸易协议。David E. Sanger报道特朗普政府和一系列国家安全问题。他在时报任职超过40年，著有数本关于美国国家安全挑战的书。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。