Gold price istrading at $4,191 per ounce today (Tuesday) December 9, 2025, holding near theelevated levels that defined 2025's historic rally. After surging 61% this yearwith over 50 all-time highs, the fourth strongest annual return since 1971, goldnow faces a critical question: what will 2026 bring?Accordingto the World Gold Council's (WGC) newly released Gold Outlook 2026 report, theanswer depends on whether US President Donald Trump's reflation policiessucceed. In the organization's most bearish scenario, gold price could crashbetween 5% and 20% from current $4,200 baseline levels, potentially dropping toa range of $3,360 to $3,990 per ounce.In this article I am checking the newest gold priceprediction to try to answer the question: How low can gold go in 2026?Gold Price Outlook And Four 2026 Scenarios: From +30% Rally to -20% CrashThe WorldGold Council doesn't offer a single prediction for 2026. Instead, the team headedby Juan Carlos Artigas, Regional CEO (Americas) and Global Head of Research atthe WGC, presents four distinct macroeconomic scenarios in the organization'sGold Outlook 2026 report, each with dramatically different implications forgold prices."Lookingto 2026, the outlook is shaped by ongoing geoeconomic uncertainty," thereport states. "The gold price broadly reflects macroeconomic consensusexpectations and may remain rangebound if current conditions persist. However,taking cues from this year, 2026 will likely continue to surprise."The Four 2026 Gold ScenariosThebaseline "Macro Consensus" scenario assumes current marketexpectations play out: global GDP growth remains around 2.7-2.8% in real terms,the Fed delivers approximately 75 basis points of additional rate cuts, and theUS dollar edges modestly higher. Under these conditions, gold would traderangebound between -5% and +5% from current levels, essentially sidewaysaction.However,the WGC emphasizes that "the macroeconomy rarely follows the path thatmarket consensus dictates." This is where the more extreme scenarios comeinto play.Why Gold Will Crash? The"Reflation Return" ScenarioThe mostbearish outlook for gold in 2026 centers on what the World Gold Council callsthe "Reflation Return" scenario, a situation where President Trump'sfiscal and industrial policies spark stronger-than-expected economic growth."Onthe flip side, there's also a possibility that the policies set by the Trumpadministration succeed, resulting in stronger-than-expected growth linked tofiscal induced support," according to Juan Carlos Artigas and the WGCresearch team in the Gold Outlook 2026 report.The Reflation MechanicsThescenario unfolds in a cascading series of economic developments. "Underthese conditions, reflation likely takes hold, pushing activity higher andlifting global growth toward a firmer trajectory," the report explains.As economicmomentum builds, inflation becomes the critical concern. "As inflationpressures mount, the Fed would be forced to hold or even hike rates in 2026.This, in turn, would push long-term yields higher and strengthen the USdollar," Artigas notes.The impacton gold becomes mechanical at this point. "The rise in yields and a firmercurrency increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and draw capital backtoward US assets," the report states. Improving economic sentiment wouldalso "fuel a broad risk-on rotation" away from safe-haven assets likegold and into equities.Usingthe WGC's November 2025 baseline of approximately $4,200 per ounce, thistranslates to a price range of:-5% decline: $3,990 per ounce-10% decline: $3,780 per ounce-15% decline: $3,570 per ounce-20% decline: $3,360 per ounceThe reportspecifically identifies gold ETF outflows as a key transmission mechanism."Gold ETF holdings could see sustained outflows as investors rotate intoequities and higher-yielding assets. Their magnitude would be a function of thereduction in gold's risk-induced premium, which has been a mainstay since theinvasion of Ukraine in 2022."The WGCconcludes that "the combination of higher opportunity costs, risk-onsentiment, and negative price momentum could create challenging conditions forgold, reinforcing this as the most bearish scenario in our outlook."Gold Price Prediction 2026And $3,300-$3,440 Support ZoneAs visibleon my technical analysis chart, the WGC projection aligns remarkably well withmy independently identified support zone betweenjust under $3,300 per ounce and over $3,440 per ounce, these are themaximums from the first part of this year drawn from April to August 2025.Thistechnical validation is significant. The World Gold Council's fundamentalanalysis of macroeconomic scenarios pointing to $3,360-$3,990 under reflationconditions corresponds almost precisely with my chart-based support levels at$3,300-$3,440 where gold established multiple highs during the spring andsummer months before the autumn breakout to all-time highs.Even such astrong correction wouldn't mean tragedy for the gold market from myperspective, but only a healthy technical correction and an opportunity to buyback at more attractive prices. Although this would mean going below the200-day exponential moving average (200 EMA), if gold began to graduallydecline, the 200 EMA would also find itself at the height of this zone or belowit, so the uptrend would theoretically be maintained.This is acritical technical point: A decline to $3,300-$3,440 represents a retest ofprevious resistance-turned-support, not a breakdown of the multi-year bulltrend. As long as the 200 EMA descends to meet price at this support zone, thetechnical structure of higher lows and higher highs remains intact.Gold Technical LevelsUnder Reflation ScenarioThealignment between the WGC's $3,360 maximum downside and my $3,300-$3,440support zone provides dual confirmation, fundamental scenario analysis andtechnical chart structure both pointing to the same price region as the likelyfloor under bearish conditions.Read also my other gold-related article:Bullish Gold Price ForecastsEven thoughthe World Gold Council outlines a bearish “Reflation Return” path with apossible 20% pullback, some of the biggest banks on Wall Street still see goldsignificantly higher into 2026.Goldman Sachs: One of the most aggressive bulls on Wall Street, Goldman Sachs projects gold could surge to $5,055 per ounce by late 2026. Their analysts cite "strong Western ETF inflows" and "continued central bank buying" as primary drivers. They also note that risks are skewed to the upside, as private sector diversification into the relatively small gold market could push prices even higher than their models predict.Bank of America: BofA has raised its forecast, targeting $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026. While they acknowledge the possibility of short-term corrections, they emphasize that a 10-15% increase in investment demand could easily elevate prices to this level.J.P. Morgan: Taking a longer-term view, J.P. Morgan sees gold averaging $5,055 by Q4 2026. They have also issued a conviction call for a multi-year bull market, with a target of $6,000 per ounce by 2028.UBS: While slightly more conservative, UBS maintains a bullish stance with a baseline target of $4,200 in the near term. However, they outline a plausible upside scenario where intensifying geopolitical risks could push the metal to $4,700 by Q1 2026.ING: Analysts at ING see fundamental factors pointing to further upside, forecasting prices to average $4,100 in early 2026 with limited downside risk.Saxo Bank's $10,000 Scenario: In a "black swan" prediction, Saxo Bank warns that a breakthrough in quantum computing could disrupt traditional digital finance and crypto, potentially sending gold rocketing to $10,000 per ounce as the ultimate "no-password" safe haven. Alternatively, they suggest a "Golden Yuan" scenario where China backs its currency with gold could push prices to $6,000+.Gold Price Analysis, FAQHow low can gold go in2026?Accordingto World Gold Council's Gold Outlook 2026 report, gold could decline 5-20% from~$4,200 November baseline to $3,360-$3,990 range under "ReflationReturn" scenario if Trump policies succeed sparking reflation. As visibleon my technical analysis, this aligns with my support zone $3,300-$3,440(April-August 2025 maximums). Why will gold crash?WGC's"Reflation Return" scenario projects gold crash if Trumpadministration policies succeed creating fiscal-induced growth. "Underthese conditions, reflation likely takes hold, pushing activity higher. Asinflation pressures mount, Fed would be forced to hold or even hike rates in2026, which would push long-term yields higher and strengthen US dollar,"per Juan Carlos Artigas.Will gold fall to $3,300?Possibleunder WGC's "Reflation Return" scenario projecting -20% maximumdecline to $3,360 from $4,200 baseline. As visible on my technical chart, WGCprojection aligns with my support zone $3,300-$3,440 (April-August 2025maximums where 200 EMA would descend on gradual decline). Is gold crash coming?Notnecessarily/ WGC presents four equal scenarios for 2026. "ReflationReturn" crash scenario (-5% to -20%) requires Trump policies succeeding,reflation, Fed holds/hikes, yields +20bp+, USD materially stronger, risk-onrotation. But "Shallow Slip" (+5% to +15%) occurs if growth slows/Fedcuts more, while "Doom Loop" (+15% to +30%) happens in severedownturn. This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.