NZDUSD D1New Zealand Dollar/US DollarFX:NZDUSDWinlouh✅ 1. Long-Term Market Context NZDUSD has been trending downward for months, but the following signals show bearish exhaustion: 🔹 Bullish Breakout from descending wedge A major trendline has been broken. This is the first structural sign of a reversal. After the breakout, price formed a ChoCH, confirming buyers entering the market. 🔹 Demand Zone Rejection (Strong) Your blue zone 0.56500 – 0.57000 is: Previous support Liquidity sweep area Overlaps with bullish imbalance This makes it a high-probability accumulation zone. ✅ 2. Market Structure Shift ✔ ChoCH Confirmed The ChoCH marks the first bullish structure shift, important before any uptrend forms. ✔ Breakout + Retest (LPS or B-wave) Your projection shows price: Retesting the broken trendline Returning into the demand zone Forming a higher low Then launching into an impulsive uptrend This is correct, as trends rarely reverse in one leg. 📌 3. Expected Bullish Path (High Probability) Your forecast matches the technical requirements: Step 1: Pullback into the blue demand zone Expected retest levels: 0.56866 Possibly deeper: 0.56500 (but still inside demand) This forms a Last Point of Support (LPS) in Wyckoff terms. Step 2: Break above 0.58494 (Daily BOS) A break of 0.58494 confirms: A new bullish trend The beginning of a medium-term markup phase Step 3: Rally toward Fibonacci targets Based on your chart: 🥇 0.618 Fib → 0.59000 zone First major liquidity magnet. 🥈 0.786 Fib → 0.60000 zone Key resistance, potential reaction area. 🥇 0.90 Fib → 0.61000 zone Final target for wave (C) or impulsive leg. This progression aligns with both: Elliott Wave correction (ABC) Wyckoff accumulation (Phase D → E → Markup) 📊 4. Liquidity Story 🟦 Below Current Price Liquidity was taken from: 0.56866 0.56500 This sweep fuels bullish displacement. 🟥 Above Current Price Large SELL-side liquidity stacks at: 0.5900 0.6000 0.6100 These levels are natural magnets during an uptrend. ⚠️ 5. Invalidation Levels Bullish setup invalidates if: ❌ Price closes below 0.56200 ❌ Daily structure flips back bearish ❌ Breakout turns into a failed breakout (distribution) As long as daily closes hold above 0.568–0.565, buyers remain strong.