ALSN - STRONG BULLISH MOMENTUMAllison Transmission Holdings, Inc.BATS:ALSNshortermtraderTICKER: ALSN (Allison Transmission Holdings) TIMEFRAME: Daily + 4H STRATEGY: Breakout Retest with Strong Fundamentals 📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS KEY LEVELS: Current Price: ~$92.50 Resistance Break: $95.80 (previous high) Next Resistance: $108.26 (Fibonacci extension) Support: $89.60 (Daily SMA50 + trendline) INDICATORS CONFIRMATION: • RSI Daily: 74.6 (strong bullish, not overbought in trending market) • MACD: Bullish crossover, positive momentum • SMA Alignment: Price > SMA20 > SMA50 (bullish stack) • Volume: Above average on recent breakout CHART PATTERN: Ascending Triangle formation on daily Higher lows since October Breakout above $95.80 confirmed 💼 FUNDAMENTAL CATALYSTS STRENGTHS: P/E Ratio: 11.4 (undervalued vs industry avg 18) Revenue Growth: +6.3% YoY Net Income Growth: +8.6% YoY Sector: Industrial - benefiting from infrastructure spending RISK MITIGATION: Strong balance sheet (moderate debt manageable) Dividend yield: 1.5% (additional return) Institutional ownership: 85% (smart money confidence) 🎯 TRADE PARAMETERS ENTRY ZONE: $95.80 - $96.20 Wait for breakout confirmation and retest STOP LOSS: $89.60 (-6.7%) Below SMA50 daily Below trendline support Below psychological $90 level TAKE PROFIT: $108.26 (+12.8%) 161.8% Fibonacci extension Previous resistance zone Measured move target RISK/REWARD: 1:1.9 📅 TIMEFRAME & MANAGEMENT TRADE DURATION: 3-6 weeks POSITION MANAGEMENT: Entry: 60% at $96.00 Add: 40% if holds above $95.00 after breakout Trailing Stop: Move to breakeven at $100.00 Partial Profit: Take 30% at $102.50 CONFIRMATION NEEDED: Daily close above $95.80 Volume > 1.5M shares on breakout RSI maintains above 60 ⚠️ RISK FACTORS WATCH OUT FOR: Market sentiment: Overall market correction Sector rotation: Out of industrials Earnings: Next report in late January Connors RSI2: Recent sell signal (03-Dec) - monitor closely INVALIDATION CONDITIONS: Daily close below $92.00 (abort setup) Volume divergence on breakout RSI reversal below 50 📈 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS BULLISH (70% probability): Breakout holds, target $108+ Could extend to $115 if momentum strong NEUTRAL (20% probability): Range bound between $92-$98 Wait for clearer direction BEARISH (10% probability): Rejection at resistance, back to $88 Stop loss hit 🏆 WHY THIS TRADE WORKS Technical Alignment: Multiple timeframes bullish Fundamental Support: Undervalued with growth Risk Management: Clear levels, positive R/R Sector Tailwinds: Industrials in favor Institutional Backing: High ownership = conviction 📌 EXECUTION SUMMARY ACTION: BUY ALSN ENTRY: $96.00 STOP: $89.60 TARGET: $108.26 SIZE: 2-3% portfolio risk DURATION: 3-6 weeks CONFIDENCE: 7/10 LIKELY OUTCOME: Breakout continuation to $108+ with proper risk management. Disclosure: This is educational content, not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately. ✅ LIKE if you find this analysis helpful! 💬 COMMENT your thoughts on ALSN below! 🔔 FOLLOW for more trade ideas! #ALSN #Trading #Breakout #Stocks #Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView