ASX SPI: Bounce Like It’s 2025?ASX SPI 200 Index FuturesASX24_DLY:AP1!FOREXcomThe second downside target of the short trade in ASX 200 SPI futures discussed last Friday has now been achieved, prompting a reassessment: hold, add, square, or flip? The uptrend that had been in place since late May finally gave way after a brief period of indecision. The subsequent bearish move broke minor support at 8830 on Tuesday before stalling at 8750 on Wednesday. While price action and momentum indicators remain extremely bearish, suggesting the breakdown could evolve into a more pronounced downtrend, it’s impossible to ignore the broader context. This is 2025. Since the Liberation Day lows in April, every bearish episode has been met with aggressive dip-buying. Until proven otherwise, we must remain open to the possibility of history repeating, creating scope for countertrend longs. If the price fails to close below 8750 today, longs could be considered above the level with a stop below for protection. Preference would be for entry to be closer to 8750 than where the price currently trades. Initial targets would be 8830, followed by the intersection of former uptrend support and the 50-day moving average at 8914. Conversely, if the price closes below 8750, shorts could be initiated or added beneath the level with a stop above, targeting support at 8600. To be clear, RSI (14) and MACD are both firmly bearish, consistent with building downside pressure that favours short setups. But that message must be treated with caution given the relentless dip-buying seen in recent months. Good luck! DS