GBP/JPY – Bearish Continuation Setup | Possible Pullback to 203GBP/JPYOANDA:GBPJPYEdgeTradingJourney1️⃣ Technical Context On the daily chart, GBP/JPY is trading around 201.12, moving inside a descending channel that began in mid-October. Price action has recently tested the lower boundary of the channel and the 200.00–200.70 demand zone, showing a short-term bullish reaction but no confirmed structural reversal yet. The RSI daily near 30 suggests a potential short-term rebound but no confirmed bullish reversal. Key Levels Resistance: 203.50 / 204.50 (upper channel + previous supply) Support: 200.00 / 199.00 (demand + psychological level) Technical Bias: Bearish below 203.50; only a daily close above 204.00 would invalidate the bearish setup. 2️⃣ COT Data (stable due to shutdown) Latest available report: JPY: Net long positions increased by +14,727 among non-commercials, while commercials remain heavily short (hedging). This indicates a structural strengthening of the Yen. GBP: Net short positions remain stable (-3,392), with a slight increase in non-commercial longs (+3,704) but not enough to shift sentiment. → Interpretation: The COT context confirms a pro-JPY bias and weak GBP outlook, maintaining a bearish fundamental bias for GBP/JPY. 3️⃣ Seasonality November seasonality shows a negative pattern for GBP/JPY, especially on the 10–20 year horizon. 20-year avg: -0.69% 10-year avg: -1.31% Only the 2-year cycle shows a mild positive move (+0.88%), suggesting that mid-term seasonality supports bearish pressure until mid-November, followed by a potential technical rebound later in the month. 4️⃣ Retail Sentiment Short: 64% Long: 36% Most retail traders are short, with an average short entry around 195.98, well below the current market price at 201. → This means the majority are still in profit, which increases the likelihood of a short-term bullish squeeze before the next downward move resumes. ✅ COT favors JPY strength ✅ Seasonality remains negative for GBP/JPY ✅ Technical structure confirms lower highs ⚠️ Retail positioning suggests possible short-term fakeout to the upside GBP/JPY remains in a bearish continuation context, consistent with Yen strength and negative seasonality. However, a technical pullback toward 203.00–203.50 is likely before a renewed bearish impulse targeting the 198.50 area.