BTCUSDT - cycle evaluation Bitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTMonkeyandTheRopes Cycle Evaluation Report Bitcoin / USDT — Binance Date of Evaluation: November 5, 2025 Analyst: MonkeyandtheRopes Framework: The Return Project — Lens Equilibrium Space ------------------------------------------------------------ 1. Long-Term Sell Cycle - White Lines (Status Report Only) ------------------------------------------------------------ Direction: Sell Origin: April 4, 2025 Target Price (TP): 75,994 USDT Current Price: 101,914 USDT Term: Long (720 days) Market Weight: Heavy (2) Capital Allocation: NO ALLOCATION FOR POSITIVE BUBBLES Cycle Age: Immature (C = 1.5) Depth (Bubble Ratio): +34.2% Projection Code: (34.2–Long–Immature–Heavy) The market currently operates within a Positive Bubble zone (Sell Cycle), representing a divergent phase where Φ_time > Φ_cap. Equilibrium quality (q) is high, and the system remains in temporal expansion. Entry during Sell Cycles (Positive Bubbles) is strictly prohibited under the Return Project framework. This cycle is evaluated only for structural and situational awareness. Expected rotation of Φ_time toward Φ_cap is anticipated in the second half of 2026, after which convergence toward the Target Price (75,994 USDT) is expected. Eval CPR: 1.72% (below 36% Base CPR) → Informational only; no trade action. ------------------------------------------------------------ 2. Mid-Term Buy Cycle - Black Lines (Primary Cycle of Interest) ------------------------------------------------------------ Direction: Buy Origin: October 6, 2025 Target Price (TP): 125,986 USDT Current Price: 101,914 USDT Term: Mid (360 days) Market Weight: Heavy (2) Capital Allocation: 40% Cycle Age: Immature (C = 1.5) Depth (Bubble Ratio): −19.1% Projection Code: (−19.1–Mid–Immature–Heavy) The price currently sits inside an early Negative Bubble (Buy Cycle), signaling the beginning of structural convergence (Φ_cap > Φ_time). However, the current depth (−19.1%) is shallower than the required entry threshold for Mid–Heavy cycles (−30.74%) defined in the Capital Model. Φ_time is gradually rotating inward, initiating the Seed Leg phase, but capital entry remains inactive until full structural depth is reached. Eval CPR: 15.4% (below 36% Base CPR) → Early-stage, pre-entry phase. ------------------------------------------------------------ Summary Table ------------------------------------------------------------ Parameter | Long-Term Sell Cycle (Status) | Mid-Term Buy Cycle (Active Focus) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Direction | Sell (Positive Bubble) | Buy (Negative Bubble) Origin Date | 4 Apr 2025 | 6 Oct 2025 Target Price | 75,994 | 125,986 Term | Long (720d) | Mid (360d) Market Weight | Heavy | Heavy Cycle Age | Immature | Immature Depth (Bubble Ratio) | +34.2% | −19.1% Eval CPR | 1.72% | 15.4% Structural Phase | Divergent (Φ_time > Φ_cap) | Convergent (Φ_cap > Φ_time) Status | Informational Only | Awaiting Deeper Entry (−30%) ------------------------------------------------------------ Final Advisory to Investor ------------------------------------------------------------ According to the deterministic logic of The Return Project: • No entries are permitted within Positive Bubbles (Sell Cycles). These are divergent zones observed only for structural awareness. • The only valid potential entry lies within the Mid-Term Buy Cycle. • Entry will become structurally justified once price reaches the defined depth threshold (~−30%) and Eval CPR ≥ 36%. Conclusion: No trade action should be taken at this stage. We must wait patiently until the market reaches the structural depth required in the Buy Cycle before initiating any position. ------------------------------------------------------------ Symbolic Representation of Cycles ------------------------------------------------------------ Cycle Type | Visual Color ------------------------------------------------------------ Sell Cycle | White ⚪ Buy Cycle | Black ⚫ ------------------------------------------------------------ End of Report — The Return Project / Lens Equilibrium Space (2025) ------------------------------------------------------------