Dollar Sees Support as T-note Yields Rise

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cut in December is not a foregone conclusion.Bearish factors for the dollar today include the weaker-than-expected US manufacturing PMI report and dovish comments from Fed Governor Miran.What Commodity Sector Looks Best This Holiday Season?5-Year Deficit, October Bottoms, Q4 Rockets: Silver's Calendar Is Laughing at BearsCommodity Roundup- October’s Top Performers and UnderperformersGet exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else.Fed Governor Stephen Miran said today, “The Fed is too restrictive, neutral is quite a ways below where current policy is.”  He added, “Given my rather more sanguine outlook on inflation than some of the other members of the committee, I don’t see a reason for keeping policy as restrictive.”  Mr. Miran recently took a leave of absence from the White House Council of Economic Advisers to take a temporary job as a Governor at the Fed.The dollar is still under pressure from the ongoing US government shutdown.  The longer the shutdown is maintained, the more likely the US economy will suffer and the more likely the Fed will have to cut interest rates.The markets are discounting a 66% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 bp at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10.As a bearish factor for the dollar, the Oct ISM manufacturing index fell by -0.4 points to 48.7, weaker than expectations for a +0.4 point rise to 49.5.  On a more favorable note, the Oct ISM prices paid index fell -3.9 points to 58.0, weaker than expectations of +0.6 to 62.5.As a supportive factor for the dollar, the final-October S&P US manufacturing PMI was revised slightly higher by +0.3 points to 52.5, stronger than market expectations for an unrevised 52.2.EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.15%, undercut by mild strength in the dollar.Central bank divergence is supportive of the euro, with the ECB seen as finished with its rate-cut cycle while the Fed is expected to cut rates by at least another percentage point by the end of 2026.The final-Oct HCOB Eurozone manufacturing PMI was unrevised at 50.0, in line with market expectations.Swaps are pricing in a 6% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the December 18 policy meeting.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoS&P 5006,771.55 -80.42 (-1.17%)Dow 3047,085.24 -251.44 (-0.53%)Nasdaq23,348.64 -486.09 (-2.04%)Russell 20002,427.34 -43.90 (-1.78%)VIX19.00 +1.83 (+10.66%)Gold3,943.30 -17.20 (-0.43%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersHTZ Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. 6.73 +1.79 (+36.23%)XMTR Xometry, Inc. 62.62 +14.05 (+28.93%)PAY Paymentus Holdings, Inc. 36.10 +7.49 (+26.18%)MTSR Metsera, Inc. 73.18 +12.45 (+20.50%)SANM Sanmina Corporation 163.58 +23.24 (+16.56%)Top losersDGNX Diginex Limited 18.25 -5.38 (-22.77%)NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. 18.79 -3.39 (-15.28%)NVTS Navitas Semiconductor Corporation 10.46 -1.79 (-14.61%)ZTS Zoetis Inc. 124.46 -19.89 (-13.78%)WRD WeRide Inc. 9.41 -1.49 (-13.72%)Most activeNVDA NVIDIA Corporation 198.69 -8.19 (-3.96%)PFE Pfizer Inc. 24.30 -0.36 (-1.46%)HTZ Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. 6.73 +1.79 (+36.23%)PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. 190.74 -16.44 (-7.94%)GRAB Grab Holdings Limited 5.79 -0.29 (-4.70%)Earnings eventsMy earnings eventsEarnings eventsTrending tickersAMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. 250.05 -9.60 (-3.70%)BTC-USD Bitcoin USD 101,205.11 -5,260.74 (-4.94%)SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. 47.40 -3.35 (-6.60%)RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. 12.50 -0.69 (-5.23%)UPST Upstart Holdings, Inc. 46.24 -1.30 (-2.73%)Top economic events