GOLD recovers slightly before ADP, pressure from Dollar and FEDGoldOANDA:XAUUSDXayah_tradingIn the Asian trading session on Wednesday morning (November 5), spot XAUUSD prices edged up around $3,938/ounce, after falling nearly 2% yesterday. The sharp correction reflected pressure from the US dollar, currently at a three-month high, along with the waiting for the ADP private employment data, which is considered an early indicator of the US labor market. Tuesday's decline, which saw gold lose $69.52, equivalent to 1.74%, came amid money flowing out of gold and back into the greenback, while investors reassessed the monetary policy outlook of the Federal Reserve (Fed). The US government remains shut down, delaying many official economic data. As a result, the market has shifted its focus to private indicators, especially the ADP employment report for October, due out tonight. The US economy is estimated to have added just 25,000 jobs in the month, a low level that suggests a marked weakening in job growth. Previously, September data showed the private sector lost 32,000 jobs, the sharpest decline since March 2023, contrary to expectations for an increase of 50,000. These signals reinforce the view that the Fed's monetary tightening cycle is coming to an end. However, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at its December meeting has dropped to about 71%, compared with more than 90% last week, after Fed officials sent cautious signals. The dollar's recovery and stable bond yields have temporarily lost gold's advantage in the short term. By its very nature, non-yielding gold tends to perform well in low interest rate and economic uncertainty environments. Therefore, the current correction is seen as a technical pause, as the market awaits clearer signals on Fed policy and the health of the US economy. The medium-term outlook remains positive, but the near-term direction will depend on ADP employment data and interest rate expectations, two factors that are reshaping gold’s position in the new global policy cycle. Technical Analysis XAUUSD Gold price is hovering around $3,939/ounce, recording a slight recovery after hitting a short-term bottom near $3,930. The price action shows that gold is moving in a corrective downtrend channel, formed after a period of vertical increase from August to mid-October. In terms of technical structure, the 0.382 Fibonacci zone at 3,972 USD ounce remains an important resistance level, while the 3,896 USD level (0.5 Fibo) acts as medium-term support. The MA21 average is currently around 4,055 USD, creating a dynamic barrier above, reflecting that the short-term downtrend is still dominant. The RSI indicator remains below 50, indicating that the market is still in a state of accumulation, lacking clear momentum. Overall, the main trend of gold is still rebalancing after an impressive series of increases, with the possibility of fluctuating in a narrow range of 3,890 - 3,980 USD/ounce before there is a new breakout signal. In the short term, gold is likely to continue to fluctuate within a consolidation range, waiting for new catalysts from US employment data and the Fed's interest rate orientation to determine the next direction. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4017 - 4015⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4021 →Take Profit 1 4009 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4003 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3920 - 3922⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3916 →Take Profit 1 3928 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3934