AGNES CHANG, DAISUKE WAKABAYASHI2025年11月5日As President Trump has imposed steep tariffs on China, American importers are buying much less.随着特朗普总统对中国加征高额关税，美国进口商的采购量大幅下降。减少从中国采购的地区：中国出口下降，2025年第三季度与2024年第三季度对比But the rest of the world is making up the difference, buying more from China than ever.但世界其他地区填补了这一缺口，从中国的进口量创下历史新高。增加从中国采购的地区：2025年第三季度中国出口额较2024年同期增长China has offset the decline from America with breathtaking speed. Shipments to other parts of the world have surged this year, demonstrating that China’s manufacturing dominance will not be easily slowed. Chinese exports are on track to reach another record this year.中国以惊人的速度抵消了对美出口下滑的影响。今年中国对世界其他地区的出口量大幅激增，这表明中国制造业的主导地位不会轻易动摇。中国今年的出口额有望再创纪录。That’s because China was prepared. It has been seeking out new customers for years, and its massive manufacturing investment allows it to sell goods at low prices.这背后的原因是中国早有准备。多年来，中国一直在积极开拓新客户，且其大规模的制造业投资使它能够以低价销售商品。“They should not be surprised that China is able to find markets outside of the advanced economies,” said Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员玛丽·洛夫利表示：“中国能够在发达经济体之外找到市场，这一点不应令人感到意外。”Last week, Mr. Trump reduced the tariffs he imposed on China, though they remain at heights not seen in decades. He insists that his tariffs will force a revival of American factories and create jobs — a pledge that is contested by many economists and manufacturing experts. It is also unclear how effective his policies will be in stemming the flow of goods that originate in China and route through other countries before arriving in the United States.上周，特朗普降低了此前对中国加征的部分关税，但当前关税水平仍处于数十年来未见的水平。他坚称，自己推出的关税政策将推动美国工厂复苏并创造就业岗位——但这一承诺遭到了许多经济学家和制造业专家的质疑。而对于那些原产自中国、经第三国转运至美国的商品，其政策能产生多大遏制效果仍不明朗。尽管特朗普政府竭力阻挠，中国全球出口仍持续增长。注：图表显示中国季度出口额。The rest of the world is caught between the two superpowers. Some countries, including Vietnam (+28%) and members of the European Union (+11%), are deeply concerned about the risk posed by China’s exports to their own industries, and China faces a backlash in the form of tariffs in regions like Europe. Other nations, like Argentina (+57%) and Nigeria (+45%), are buying low-cost Chinese technology to modernize their economies but running up wider trade imbalances with China.世界其他国家正夹在这两大超级经济体之间。包括越南（增长28%）和欧盟成员国（增长11%）在内的部分国家对中国出口产品给本国产业带来的风险深感担忧，中国在欧洲等地区也面临着关税形式的抵制。而阿根廷（增长57%）和尼日利亚（增长45%）等其他国家则在采购中国低成本技术以实现经济现代化，但这也导致它们与中国的贸易逆差进一步扩大。For years, Americans have turned to China to outfit their homes and stock their offices. While the volume of Chinese exports remains enormous, the declines this year are widespread and drastic. The United States is buying less of almost everything from China:多年来，美国人一直依赖中国为他们的家庭添置物品、充实办公物资。尽管中国出口总量依然庞大，但今年对美出口的下滑范围广、幅度大。美国从中国采购的几乎所有品类商品数量都在减少：中国出口变动情况：2025年第三季度与2024年第三季度对比。注：仅显示2024年第三季度至2025年第三季度期间中国对美国出口额变动超5000万美元的商品类别。 The New York TimesTake, for example, plastic goods. China exported $5 billion of those products — from laundry baskets to plastic forks — to the United States between July and October, down 16 percent from a year earlier.以塑料制品为例，7月至10月期间，中国对美出口的这类产品——从洗衣篮到塑料叉——金额为50亿美元，较去年同期下降16%。Last year, over a quarter of all Chinese-made furniture, including mattresses and lamps, went to the United States; now that number is closer to a fifth.去年，中国生产的家具（包括床垫和灯具）当中，超过四分之一销往美国；如今这一比例已降至约五分之一。China’s exports of phones (−47%) and computers (−54%) to the United States were among the categories that declined the most. Mr. Trump exempted such consumer electronics from most of his tariffs this year, but Apple, Hewlett-Packard and other manufacturers have continued to diversify their supply chains outside China. The United States now gets most of its smartphones from India and its laptop computers from Vietnam, according to the latest U.S. government data.中国对美手机出口（下降47%）和电脑出口（下降54%）是降幅最大的品类之一。尽管特朗普今年将这类消费电子产品排除在大部分关税政策之外，但苹果、惠普等制造商仍在继续将供应链迁出中国，实现多元化布局。美国政府最新数据显示，美国目前的智能手机主要来自印度，笔记本电脑则主要来自越南。Meanwhile, China is flooding developing economies in Africa (+42%) and South America (+13%) with cars, trucks, bikes and ships; it is expanding in Europe (+7%) and Asia (+14%) by shipping batteries and iron products.与此同时，中国正向非洲（增长42%）和南美洲（增长13%）等发展中经济体大量出口汽车、卡车、自行车和船舶；通过出口电池和钢铁产品，中国在欧洲（增长7%）和亚洲（增长14%）的市场份额也在不断扩大。After decades of top-down priorities established by Beijing’s industrial policies, China has become the world’s leading producer of cars, batteries and solar panels. Struggling consumer demand in its domestic economy has put even more pressure on Chinese companies to find new business abroad.经过数十年由政府工业政策主导的自上而下发展，中国已成为全球最大的汽车、电池和太阳能电池板生产国。国内消费需求疲软进一步加剧了中国企业开拓海外市场的压力。China also produced record amounts of steel over the past few years. This is now sold across the world at prices sometimes cheaper than bottled water.过去几年，中国钢铁产量也屡创新高。如今这些钢铁销往世界各地，售价有时甚至低于瓶装水。 Many African countries bought few of these items from China before this year. China sold only about 100 electric cars to Nigeria two years ago; this year it has already sold thousands. Solar panel shipments to Algeria thus far this year is already nearly four times that of all of last year.今年之前，许多非洲国家从中国采购的这类产品数量极少。两年前，中国对尼日利亚的电动汽车出口仅约100辆；而今年，这一数字已是数以千计。今年以来，中国对阿尔及利亚的太阳能电池板出口量已接近去年全年总量的四倍。China’s growing exports to Africa come as Mr. Trump has pulled back aid to the continent. Chinese companies are sacrificing profits by selling to Africa at low prices, but are, in many cases, gaining influence.在中国对非出口不断增长的同时，特朗普政府却在削减对非洲大陆的援助。中国企业虽以低价向非洲销售产品，牺牲了部分利润，但在许多情况下，也借此扩大了影响力。“The margins may not be as high,” said Ilaria Mazzocco, a deputy director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But for those markets, it's entirely transformational to have access to this technology at affordable prices.”战略与国际研究中心副主任伊拉莉亚·马佐科表示：“利润率可能不高，但对于这些市场而言，能以可承受的价格获得此类技术，本身就具有彻底的变革意义。”There are exceptions to China’s ability to successfully make up for lost revenue by selling to American customers and redirecting exports elsewhere. Chinese companies, for example, make most of the world’s toys, and the United States has long been its largest customer. Over the summer, China’s exports of video game consoles, costumes and board games fell $3.5 billion over last year, mostly due to a steep decline in shipments to the United States.不过，中国并非在所有领域都能通过转向其他市场出口来成功弥补对美出口减少的损失。例如，中国企业生产了全球大部分玩具，而美国长期以来都是其最大客户。今年夏季，中国电子游戏主机、化妆服饰和桌游等产品的出口额较去年减少35亿美元，这主要是由于对美出货量锐减。 It remains to be seen how effective Mr. Trump will be in pressuring countries, especially those in Asia, to reject rerouted Chinese exports as part of trade negotiations. These workarounds limited the impact of his trade measures with China during his first term.特朗普在贸易谈判中施压其他国家——尤其是亚洲国家——抵制中国转口贸易的成效仍有待观察。在他的第一任期内，这类规避手段曾削弱了其对华贸易措施的效果。One thing is certain: American consumers are buying more goods from other parts of Asia. In September, Thailand’s exports to the United States rose by 33 percent. Taiwan’s exports also grew by 51 percent, and Singapore’s by 13 percent.有一点可以确定：美国消费者正从亚洲其他地区采购更多商品。9月，泰国对美出口增长33%，台湾对美出口增长51%，新加坡对美出口增长13%。The shifts in China’s exports are part of what is expected to be a continuing and unpredictable transformation. Mr. Trump’s tariff reduction last week, which he said lowered overall tariffs on China to about 45 percent from about 55 percent, could stabilize China’s exports to the United States, said Gerard DiPippo, associate director of the RAND China Research Center.中国出口格局的转变是一场预计将持续且充满不确定性的转型的一部分。特朗普上周表示已将对华整体关税从约55%降至约45%，兰德公司中国研究中心副主任杰拉德·迪皮波表示，这一举措或能稳定中国对美出口。But despite agreeing to a one-year trade truce with China, Mr. Trump is considering whether to impose additional tariffs on industries dominated by China, such as pharmaceuticals and drones. He is vowing to wean America off its reliance on China for some critical minerals. With more than three years left in office, Mr. Trump’s campaign to reshape trade is unlikely to end here.尽管特朗普政府已与中国达成为期一年的贸易休战协议，但他仍在考虑对制药、无人机等中国主导的行业加征额外关税，并誓言要让美国摆脱对中国关键矿产的依赖。特朗普的任期还有三年多，他重塑贸易格局的行动恐怕不会就此结束。数据来源：贸易数据监测机构数据说明：贸易变化基于中国海关公布的今年7-9月出口数据与去年同期数据的对比计算得出，贸易额以美元计价。今年第三季度从中国进口额低于5亿美元的贸易伙伴未纳入统计。顶部图表仅包含同比变化超过1亿美元的贸易伙伴。其他国家对美出口数据基于这些国家自身公布的统计结果。美国智能手机和笔记本电脑进口数据基于美国人口普查局6月发布的最新季度数据。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。