GBP/JPY) Bearish trend analysis Read The captionBritish Pound vs Japanese YenICMARKETS:GBPJPYSMC-Trading-PointSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of GBP/JPY (4H timeframe) based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Fibonacci premium zone confluence. Let’s break down the full analysis and idea 👇 --- Overall Concept This setup illustrates a retracement sell idea, expecting GBP/JPY to reverse from a premium Fibonacci zone (0.62–0.79) after a corrective rally. The chart suggests price is likely to reject the supply zone and continue downward toward the 198.820 target point. --- Technical Breakdown 1. Market Structure The overall structure has shifted bearish — price broke a prior higher low, confirming a Change of Character (ChoCH). The move up is seen as a retracement to fill imbalance and mitigate a supply zone before continuation down. The chart shows a lower-high formation in progress, aligning with bearish momentum. 2. Key Levels Current Price: 201.899 50 EMA: 201.561 → currently acting as dynamic resistance. 200 EMA: 201.531 → additional confluence resistance level. Premium Fibonacci Zone (0.62–0.79): 201.80–202.40 (marked by the blue area). This is the ideal sell zone where liquidity above recent highs may be collected before the drop. Target Point: 198.820 — previous demand zone and potential liquidity area. 3. Fibonacci & Supply Confluence The retracement is drawn from the previous swing high to swing low. Price has tapped into the 0.705–0.79 zone, which overlaps with the EMA resistance cluster. Red arrow marks the potential entry trigger area where institutions may enter short. 4. Expected Price Action 1. Price rejects the blue premium zone (0.62–0.79). 2. A bearish rejection candle or engulfing pattern forms. 3. Market structure confirms with a lower low on smaller timeframes. 4. Price continues downward toward 198.820 — the target point and liquidity draw. 5. Volume & Confirmation Volume (37.2K) indicates market participation, aligning with a potential exhaustion of buyers near resistance. The clean liquidity sweep above EMAs supports the bearish mitigation scenario. --- Trade Idea Summary Aspect Detail Bias Bearish Entry Zone 201.80 – 202.40 (Fibonacci 0.62–0.79 + supply area) Stop Loss Above 202.60 (structure invalidation) Take Profit 198.82 (target liquidity zone) Risk-to-Reward (RR) ≈ 1:3 or better --- Confirmation to Watch Bearish rejection candle or engulfing pattern within blue zone Price holding below EMA50/200 Break of internal support confirming bearish continuation Mr SMC Trading point --- Summary GBP/JPY is showing signs of distribution after a corrective pullback into a premium zone. The confluence of Fibonacci retracement, EMA resistance, and structure break supports a bearish continuation toward 198.820, making this a clean retracement sell setup aligned with SMC methodology. --- please support boost 🚀 this analysis