ElDoradoFx – GOLD ANALYSIS (10/11/2025, ASIA SESSION)Gold US DollarVANTAGE:XAUUSDELDORADOFX1. Market Overview Gold opens the Asian session consolidating near $4,000–$4,003, after the US session’s liquidity sweeps on both sides of the range. Price remains trapped between $3,985 support and $4,016 resistance, showing a symmetrical compression pattern. The market sentiment is currently neutral, awaiting a breakout from this coil — which will likely set the tone for the London continuation. ⸻ 2. Technical Breakdown 🔹 Daily (D1): Price is stabilizing above the 50EMA with RSI around 51 — neutral but slightly leaning bullish. A daily close above $4,016 would reestablish bullish continuation toward $4,036–$4,050, while a drop below $3,975 could shift momentum back to bearish. 🔹 H1: Gold is respecting the descending trendline from $4,027, while creating a higher-low structure from $3,985. The 200EMA near $4,006–$4,010 acts as key intraday resistance, currently rejecting buyers. EMAs are converging, signaling volatility buildup before expansion. 🔹 15M–5M: Short-term CHoCH confirmed after liquidity sweep at $3,985, but momentum faded below $4,010. RSI sits around 48–50 and MACD shows flattening histogram — both suggesting indecision ahead of the Asian liquidity phase. ⸻ 3. Fibonacci Analysis (Last Swing 3,984 → 4,027) •38.2% = $4,011 •50.0% = $4,006 •61.8% = $4,001 🎯 Golden Zone: $4,011 – $4,001 (Potential buy reaction area on retest) ⸻ 4. High-Probability Trade Scenarios 📈 BUY SCENARIO (Primary Bias) •Entry Zone: $4,006 – $4,001 (Golden Zone)** •Targets: $4,016 → $4,027 → $4,036 •Stop Loss: Below $3,992 •Confirmation: Bullish engulfing candle or CHoCH on 5M from Golden Zone. •Confluence: Support trendline + 61.8% Fib + EMA cluster + RSI recovery from 40–45. 📉 SELL SCENARIO (Countertrend) •Entry Zone: $4,010 – $4,016 (Supply + 200EMA + trendline resistance)** •Targets: $4,000 → $3,990 → $3,975 •Stop Loss: Above $4,020 •Confirmation: Bearish rejection candle with RSI divergence (60–65 range). •Confluence: Strong horizontal supply + descending resistance + MACD bearish cross. 💥 BREAKOUT SETUP •Bullish Break: Close above $4,016 → Retest $4,010 → Targets $4,027 → $4,036 → $4,050. •Bearish Break: Close below $3,985 → Retest $3,990 → Targets $3,976 → $3,960. ⸻ 5. Fundamental Watch •Asia session: Low volatility expected before London liquidity expansion. •DXY near 106.0 — holding steady, which could limit upside momentum until London. •No major macro data during Asia; technical levels will dominate. ⸻ 6. Key Technical Levels Resistance: 4,010 / 4,016 / 4,027 / 4,036 Support: 4,001 / 3,992 / 3,985 / 3,975 Golden Zone: 4,011 – 4,001 Breakout Triggers: >4,016 (Bullish) |