Forex: Weekly Review US Dollar/Japanese YenFX:USDJPYjohnelfedforexblogI found the week starting Monday 3 November to be a difficult trading environment. On the surface, all is well. Central banks are cutting interest rates during a reasonably strong economic environment. Inflation is gradually falling, the US and China trade negotiations are tentatively positive. Company earnings continue to exceed expectations. All in all, although it's been years in the making (and may still take years to be confirmed), the 'soft landing narrative' is alive and well. But, a potentially slower pace of FED rate cuts, a resurfacing of US / CHINA tension (particularly regarding rare earth), suggestions AI stocks are overvalued...All combined with the ongoing government shutdown to ensure a negative tone throughout the week. We did get a bit of private sector data, Monday's 'soft' manufacturing data kick-started the negative mood. Wednesday's 'positive' ADP JOBS and ISM SERVICE data provided us with the only 'positive sentiment' day of the week. But the positivity evaporated once the 'overvalued tech concerns' kicked in. A 'still hawkish RBA' didn't help the AUD as the commodity currencies struggled in the overall negative environment. But a 'BOE hold' did give the GBP some restpite from recent woes, perhaps a bit of profit taking after a couple of weeks negativity. All in all, the fact the VIX barely rose above 20 suggests to me the negativity isn't too concerning and 'risk on' trades could resume soon. But I begin the new week with an open mind. On a personal note, it was a bit of a disappointing week of two trades, AUD JPY long during Wednesday's positivity, perhaps I was a little late to the party. A trade immediately after ADP data may well have hit profit, it's always tricky when two pieces of data are released an hour apart, do you go with the initial release or wait for the second piece of data? Whichever option you choose, sometimes it goes for you, sometimes it goes against you. All you can do is make a decision that feels right in the moment. By Friday, I felt the JPY strength was overdone and placed a USD JPY long, based on diverging interest rate speculation. The trade was eventually closed for a small profit. Let's see what the new week brings.