14/11/25 Still Sideways Tight Trading RangeCrude Palm Oil FuturesMYX:FCPO1!Tech_Trader88Yesterday’s candlestick (Thursday, Nov 13) was a bull doji closing around the middle of its range. In our previous report, we said traders would watch whether the bears would attempt to create another leg down, or if the market would continue to consolidate sideways. The market retested the Nov 6 low, but there was no follow-through selling. The market reversed back into the sideways consolidation. The bulls hope the current decline will form a major higher low. If the market trades lower, they want the recent sideways consolidation to be the final flag of the move. They want a pullback to the 20-day EMA. The problem with the bull's case is that they haven't been able to create strong bull bars to show control. They must now produce strong consecutive bull bars, clearly breaking above the tight trading range with follow-through buying. The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area. The selloff formed a tight bear channel, showing strong bears and persistent selling pressure. They see the current tight trading range as a pullback. They want a breakout below, followed by another strong leg down. If the market trades higher, the bears want it to stall around 4200 or the 20-day EMA, then resume its decline. Fundamentals • Production: SPPOMA down 2% in the first 10 days. • Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying premiums vs spot futures. • Exports: ITS is down 12.28% in the first 10 days. Overall, the market broke out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent, tight bear channel — evidence of strong selling momentum. The market remains Always-In-Short. The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. The market may need to form a minor pullback before resuming its decline. However, he bulls have not yet been able to create decent buying pressure. The bulls need to do more to show they are at least temporarily back in control by creating consecutive strong bull bars. Otherwise, traders will not be willing to buy aggressively. For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor. If the pullback continues to be sideways and the bulls fail to create strong bull bars, the odds of another leg down will increase in the days ahead. Today (Friday, Nov 14), traders will watch whether the bears get a strong bear bar, which will create a bear body on the weekly chart. If this is the case, the bearish case remains or increases. Or will the bulls be able to create a strong bull bar (which they have not yet been able to do so), which will create a bull body on the weekly candlestick instead? Andrew