vblVarun Beverages Ltd.NSE:VBLskg7777711Target Scenarios Given the above, I lay out two plausible scenarios: a bullish rebound and a more conservative sideways/weak outcome. These are not predictions; they are what-if frameworks based on chart behaviour and risk. Scenario A – Bullish Rebound Assumptions: The support near ₹ 434-436 holds, volume picks up, sector/demand tailwinds kick in, and the stock begins to move out of consolidation. Short-term target: ~₹ 500-₹ 525 (benchmarked off the resistance near ~₹ 495-₹ 522). Medium-term upside: If momentum sustains and broader market supports, one could aim for ~₹ 650 region (prior high ~₹ 663). So from current ~₹ 453, that’s roughly +10% to +15% to first target, and +40% or so to the higher target. Scenario B – Sideways / Weak Outcome Assumptions: Support weakens, demand remains muted, and the stock drifts without strong breakout. Risk of dropping toward the support zone ~₹ 434 or even toward the lows ~₹ 420-425 if negative triggers come in. In such a case, upside becomes muted — perhaps staying in range of ₹ 450-₹ 500. My Target Recommendation Given current levels and the mix of support/resistance, if I were to pick a primary target, I’d suggest: Base case target: ~₹ 520 (assuming modest rebound). Stretch target: ~₹ 650 (if breakout occurs). Stop-loss / caution: If it breaks below ~₹ 430 decisively, one should reassess since the bullish argument weakens. Counter-Points & Risk Factors The valuation is quite rich (high P/E, high P/B) — so expectations must be high for growth to support a rebound. The broader sector (beverages, non-alcoholic etc) may face headwinds from raw material costs, regulation, competition — any of which could blunt the rally. Technical support is present but not deeply strong a sharp downside move could violate the rs 434 zone and shift momentum. this is not any buy sell recommendation only educational purpose, analyse your risk at your own