Liquidity Bitcoin Halving: Is Crypto’s Magic Cycle Finally Broken?

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Photo by BeInCryptoAfter months of steady expansion, the crypto market liquidity is starting to dry up. The strongest signal comes from the decline in stablecoin supply, often referred to as the “lifeblood” of the crypto ecosystem.This raises a crucial question: If liquidity is shrinking and Bitcoin Halving has lost its magic, what will drive the next crypto cycle?According to DefiLlama, the total global stablecoin market cap dropped from $309 billion to $305 billion in November 2025, marking the first contraction after two years of continuous growth. This trend suggests that capital inflows are cooling off, signaling weaker liquidity ahead.Stablecoin market cap. Source: DefiLlamaData from CryptoQuant shows the USDT supply is starting to slip, a common early indicator that money is flowing out of risk assets. Historically, Bitcoin (BTC) tends to follow with downward pressure.Meanwhile, CoinGecko reports that USDT circulation has hovered near $183 billion for the past three weeks, showing no major new issuance, a stark contrast to mid-year’s aggressive “money injection.”Stablecoin supply is starting to slip. Source: X/CryptoQuantThe slowdown doesn’t stop there. According to Wintermute, ETF inflows and DATs (Digital Asset Trusts) are also showing fatigue. Together, these metrics confirm a broad-based cooling of liquidity across the market. Some traders even argue that crypto is now “self-funding” rather than "pulling in fresh capital".ETF and DATs inflows are slowing. Source: X/WintermuteAll signs point to one conclusion: the “easy money” phase of the crypto bull market may be ending, at least temporarily. The market appears to be entering a period of light cleansing, setting the stage for a new price and sentiment baseline.For over a decade, the Bitcoin Halving has been the guiding principle of crypto bull markets. Historically, each halving has triggered a major price rally within 12 to 18 months.However, in 2025, many analysts argue that the Liquidity Bitcoin Halving model, where halving and liquidity expansion align, may no longer be valid. Instead, global liquidity, driven by the Fed and ETF flows, is the real market catalyst, potentially extending this cycle into 2026.However, Adez Research disagrees. They believe large market makers (MMs) may be pushing this liquidity narrative, while real data doesn’t support it.“When institutional players coordinate narratives while the data shows otherwise, that’s your signal.” Adez shared.By analyzing Bitcoin’s historical cycles since 2013, Adez found no consistent correlation between the Fed's balance sheet changes (QE/QT) and Bitcoin's performance. BTC has risen and fallen during both liquidity expansion and contraction phases, weakening the Liquidity Bitcoin Halving correlation thesis.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoS&P 5006,737.49 -113.43 (-1.66%)Dow 3047,457.22 -797.60 (-1.65%)Nasdaq22,870.36 -536.10 (-2.29%)Russell 20002,382.98 -67.81 (-2.77%)VIX20.00 +2.49 (+14.20%)Gold4,179.40 -34.20 (-0.81%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersCLBT Cellebrite DI Ltd. 19.28 +3.31 (+20.73%)ONDS Ondas Holdings Inc. 6.56 +1.05 (+19.06%)FLY Firefly Aerospace Inc. 21.42 +3.11 (+16.99%)SEE Sealed Air Corporation 42.50 +6.12 (+16.82%)TTEK Tetra Tech, Inc. 37.41 +4.96 (+15.29%)Top losersBTDR Bitdeer Technologies Group 11.11 -2.83 (-20.30%)FRMI Fermi Inc. 17.50 -4.26 (-19.58%)BE Bloom Energy Corporation 103.55 -23.17 (-18.28%)FLNC Fluence Energy, Inc. 16.25 -2.96 (-15.41%)VIA Via Transportation, Inc. 43.14 -7.36 (-14.57%)Most activeONDS Ondas Holdings Inc. 6.56 +1.05 (+19.06%)OPEN Opendoor Technologies Inc. 8.56 -0.81 (-8.64%)NVDA NVIDIA Corporation 186.86 -6.94 (-3.58%)SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. 28.39 -3.82 (-11.86%)PLUG Plug Power Inc. 2.4900 -0.2400 (-8.79%)Earnings eventsMy earnings eventsEarnings eventsTrending tickersBTC-USD Bitcoin USD 98,587.30 -3,243.42 (-3.19%)TSLA Tesla, Inc. 401.99 -28.61 (-6.64%)NVVE Nuvve Holding Corp. 0.4758 +0.3196 (+204.61%)^IXIC NASDAQ Composite 22,870.36 -536.10 (-2.29%)ETH-USD Ethereum USD 3,172.97 -249.37 (-7.29%)Top economic events